Albuquerque, New Mexico

New AVIATION

• A few light showers or weak thunderstorms will develop across portions of western and central New Mexico through the afternoon.
• Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River rises are expected across northern and western NM and there is a moderate to high chance for river flooding.
• There is a low (5-15%) chance that severe thunderstorms will develop across eastern New Mexico Sunday night, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Happy Halloween! A band of showers stretching from north central NM to the Central Highlands will continue to shift eastward this morning, but will gradually lose steam east of the Central Mountain Chain. Much of the precipitation will diminish before reaching the eastern plains. Some of the highest elevations of the northern mountain may pick up a dusting to half inch of snow. Patchy fog has already been noted across portions of eastern NM along with widespread low clouds. Patchy low clouds will also develop behind the band of precipitation this morning. However, by this afternoon, much quieter conditions are expected. Isolated, brief showers can`t be ruled out in the afternoon, but overall it should be a pleasant afternoon and evening, perfect for trick-or-treating. 6 to 7PM temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s will be common, with cooler temperatures in the northern mountains.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate after midnight tonight across western NM. We continue to watch a Pacific low off the coast of the northern Baja and a northern stream low approach the Desert Southwest. Though the systems don`t quite phase, they will nonetheless have impacts on NM. Abundant moisture will stream into NM ahead of the southern stream low starting early Sunday morning. PWATs quickly climb to near one inch, or 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal for much of the area. It is a near certainty that daily PWAT records will be broken at KABQ. Precipitation will quickly spread across western NM prior to sunrise Sunday. Precipitation will be orographically focused through midday until the front associated with the southern stream trough slides eastward across western NM Sunday afternoon. At which time, precipitation amounts will be higher, given the additional forcing. Watch for a band of higher precipitation rates along the front which will move into the Rio Grande Valley early Sunday evening. Once the front reaches the Rio Grande Valley and points eastward, it will find more instability to work with. So while there will have been little in the way of thunderstorms across western NM, thunderstorms, some severe, will be possible along the front as it shifts eastward across eastern NM Sunday night. MUCAPE values from the RRFS/REFS are around 800-1400 J/kg with 0-6km bulk shear values between 50 and 70kt, with these values being highest across eastern NM. Best chances for severe weather now appears to be between 7pm Sunday night through 2am Monday morning. All hazards remain possible, though damaging wind gusts are the greatest threat. However, a QLCS-type tornado threat cannot be ruled out. Given this will be a nighttime severe threat, folks should prepare now to have multiple ways to receive warnings.

While the severe threat is ongoing Sunday night, orographic lift will persist across western NM allowing rain to continue over the high terrain. The northern low will then shift over the Four Corners early Monday morning. Ascent ahead of low combined with an stronger cold front should allow for another band of showers to develop over northwest NM early Monday morning which will shift toward the Central Mountain Chain by mid day. Cold air advection will be much stronger with this front allowing snow levels to fall from 11-12kft to 7500ft-9kft. One to 4 inches of snow remains expected above 9000 feet across the northern mountains. Additionally, winds behind this front will be much stronger than the winds behind the initial front on Sunday. Wind Advisories may be needed for Monday along and just east of the Central Mtn Chain, but windy conditions will be felt across much of western NM as well. Areas from KLVS to KCQC to KSRR could see gusts near 50 mph, while gusts between 30-45 mph will be common elsewhere. The wind will make the cooler temperatures feel much cooler.

The precipitation will diminish across western NM and become focused across northeast NM Monday afternoon behind the backdoor segment of the cold front. Rain will be the dominant precipitation type across northeast NM, but a rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out over Raton Pass.

The Flood Watch remains in effect for western NM including the Tusas and Jemez Mountains. Between 1 and 2 inches of liquid precipitation will be common, but upslope favored location in the Tusas and San Juan Mountains of CO could see more than 3 inches of rainfall. Concern continues for river rises and potential flooding in areas still recovering from the last flood event. Any flooding that occurs will be less likely to be "flashy" but conditions will just gradually get worse the longer it rains.

As the upper low pulls away from NM, precipitation will wane across NE NM Monday night. Winds will also decrease through the evening, except across NE NM where gusty northerly winds will persist.

Quieter conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday as ridging initially moves overhead Tuesday before becoming more zonal Wed into Thur. Considerable uncertainty exists for Friday. Another storm system may be in the offing, but models are very inconsistent regarding strength and timing of the system.

Low clouds and fog that were present this morning are slowly rising and lifting, but several locations, particularly in eastern New Mexico, will continue to be impacted by MVFR ceilings (less than 3,000 ft). Ceilings over a few eastern locales may not fully lift or rise out of the MVFR category through the afternoon. A few stray light showers and weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over western and central New Mexico, but these will be very isolated with gusty outflow winds and a few lightning strikes being the main impacts through early this evening. A more widespread and persistent batch of rain will spread over west central, northwestern, and portions of north central New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. This will reintroduce MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities with rain. While the eastern plains of the state will not observe much, if any, rainfall overnight, areas of fog and low ceilings will redevelop early Sunday morning with widespread IFR ceilings (less than 1,000 ft) and visibilities (less than 3 SM).

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next 7 days. Showers will continue this morning before diminishing this afternoon across central and eastern NM. Then, a significant moisture intrusion is expected Sunday through Monday. Widespread rain and high elevation snow is expected across central and western NM, while severe thunderstorms will be possible across eastern NM Sunday night. The system will also bring gusty southwest winds on Sunday, with gusts between 25 and 35 mph common, though may be slightly stronger across far northeast NM. Winds will be stronger on Monday from the west and northwest with gusts up to 50 mph. Quieter conditions expected for the mid week period.

Farmington......................  63  50  62  44 /  10  80 100  90
Dulce...........................  58  41  56  38 /  10  80 100 100
Cuba............................  58  46  57  39 /  10  70 100  90
Gallup..........................  61  48  60  41 /  10 100 100  90
El Morro........................  60  46  60  39 /  10  80 100 100
Grants..........................  62  48  62  42 /  10  80  90 100
Quemado.........................  62  49  61  41 /  10  70  90 100
Magdalena.......................  63  51  65  45 /  20  50  60  90
Datil...........................  60  47  61  42 /  10  70  80  90
Reserve.........................  64  51  61  44 /  20  90 100 100
Glenwood........................  68  55  65  46 /  30  90 100 100
Chama...........................  52  38  51  35 /  20  70 100 100
Los Alamos......................  58  46  57  42 /  10  70 100 100
Pecos...........................  59  43  59  40 /  10  40  80 100
Cerro/Questa....................  56  40  56  39 /  20  30 100 100
Red River.......................  49  34  54  37 /  30  20  90 100
Angel Fire......................  52  33  58  38 /  30  20  70 100
Taos............................  59  40  60  41 /  20  30  90 100
Mora............................  59  40  59  41 /  10  20  70  90
Espanola........................  63  46  64  44 /  10  50  90 100
Santa Fe........................  60  47  60  45 /  10  40  90 100
Santa Fe Airport................  63  46  64  44 /  10  50  80 100
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  52  67  47 /   5  50  70 100
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  53  69  48 /  10  50  70 100
Albuquerque Valley..............  67  47  70  44 /  10  50  70  90
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  53  68  48 /  10  60  80  90
Belen...........................  69  55  71  49 /  10  30  50  90
Bernalillo......................  66  50  69  47 /   5  60  80 100
Bosque Farms....................  67  51  70  46 /  10  40  60  90
Corrales........................  66  52  69  47 /   5  60  80 100
Los Lunas.......................  68  53  71  47 /  10  40  60  90
Placitas........................  64  50  67  47 /   5  60  80 100
Rio Rancho......................  66  53  68  48 /  10  60  80  90
Socorro.........................  70  56  72  51 /  10  40  40  90
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  48  62  43 /  10  50  70 100
Tijeras.........................  61  49  64  45 /   5  50  70 100
Edgewood........................  61  47  64  45 /   5  50  60 100
Moriarty/Estancia...............  64  46  65  45 /  10  40  50 100
Clines Corners..................  60  46  63  43 /   5  30  40 100
Mountainair.....................  62  48  64  44 /  20  30  40 100
Gran Quivira....................  61  49  63  46 /  20  20  40 100
Carrizozo.......................  64  52  69  50 /  20  20  20 100
Ruidoso.........................  60  48  65  46 /  20  20  20  90
Capulin.........................  62  42  61  44 /  10   5  20  80
Raton...........................  66  41  66  44 /   5   5  20  90
Springer........................  67  42  68  47 /   0   5  30  80
Las Vegas.......................  62  44  61  44 /   5  20  60  90
Clayton.........................  66  48  66  52 /   5   0  20  80
Roy.............................  65  46  63  48 /   5   5  30  90
Conchas.........................  71  52  69  55 /   0   5  20  90
Santa Rosa......................  69  51  68  53 /   0  10  20  90
Tucumcari.......................  71  54  72  56 /   0   5  10  70
Clovis..........................  67  53  70  55 /   0   5  20  70
Portales........................  69  53  72  56 /   0   5  10  50
Fort Sumner.....................  68  53  69  55 /   0  10  20  70
Roswell.........................  68  55  73  56 /   5  10  10  50
Picacho.........................  67  52  75  53 /  10  10  10  60
Elk.............................  66  50  71  51 /  10  10  20  60

Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for NMZ201>211.