Medford, Oregon

Updated Aviation Discussion

• Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through the weekend and into early next week.
• Widespread light to locally moderate showers are expected across the entire forecast area Saturday and Saturday night.
• Dry conditions return Sunday through mid/late next week.
• Along the coast, there is a moderate to high risk for sneaker waves Sunday evening through Monday afternoon.
• By late next week, early signs pointing towards active weather returning to the area.

Areas of fog are possible in local valleys west of the Cascades this morning as clear skies allow for excellent radiative cooling. Any fog that develops, and some has already been spotted in several coastal valleys and the Umpqua Basin, should clear through the morning.

The offshore upper low is beginning to elongate north to south as it becomes pinched between a broad ridge over the central and eastern US and a sharp, high amplitude ridge over the northeastern Pacific. As it stretches, it is also starting to push east, and will cross onshore later today. As it does so, we will see widespread light showers develop across the area this afternoon and persist into tonight. Overall, rainfall amounts will be light, but a few locations, where banding sets up or training occurs, may see some moderate rainfall amounts. Snow levels will remain around 5000 ft, so most populated places are not likely to see any snow, but some very light accumulations are possible over the mountains and passes. Also, breezy to gusty southerly winds are likely this afternoon for areas east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley.

For Halloween evening festivities (5 to 8 pm PDT), scattered to widespread light showers will be moving across the area, with periods of light rain expected for most areas. Precipitation amounts are generally light with around a trace to 0.10 inches in 3 hours and the higher amounts are mainly over the mountains but also possible in the Ashland area, southern Shasta Valley and the Mount Shasta area. Locally moderate showers are also possible in Modoc and far southern Lake counties.

The trough shifts to the east and high pressure begins to build in on Sunday. As a result, showers will diminish and exit the area by Sunday morning. With high pressure in place through Tuesday morning, expect cool to cold morning temperatures, warmer daytime temperatures and dry weather. Areas of morning fog are expected Sunday and Monday morning for inland valleys and along the coast.

Looking further out, a weak low crosses onshore into northern California late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, producing another round of light showers across the area, mainly from the Cascades west and across northern California. Then a weakening front moves into the Pacific Northwest Thursday into Thursday night with additional precipitation chances over the area. However, this front may weaken substantially as it moves onshore, limiting how much precipitation falls. A potentially stronger front may move into the area late in the week or into the weekend. However, ensembles show significant variability on the strength of this system with some pointing to the front weakening as it moves onshore and others bringing widespread light to moderate precipitation.

31/18Z TAFs...Areas of IFR to LIFR conditions in fog in the Umpqua Basin and Grants Pass area will clear between 18-20z. Scattered showers are expected to develop across much of the area this afternoon and evening. Localized MVFR ceilings and terrain obsurations are possible in heavier showers this afternoon and evening, with lower flight conditions becoming more common in the late evening and overnight. Areas of IFR are expected to develop tonight and Sunday morning at North Bend (KOTH) and Roseburg (KRBG) as showers decrease.

Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, October 31, 2026...Unsettled weather with occasional showers will continue through the weekend. Winds are expected to remain below advisory strength through at least early next week. Seas will be low through Sunday morning, dominated by a mix of west-northwest and south swell. West-northwest swell is expected to build into the waters Sunday and Monday, with swell building from 2 ft at 21 seconds Sunday afternoon to around 8 to 10 ft at 17 seconds around Monday afternoon. This will result in steep combined seas of over 10 feet on Monday. Seas gradually lower Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, October 31, 2026... Guidance continues to depict a long period WNW swell building into the area Sunday and persisting into early next week. Originating from near the western Aleutian Islands, the swell arrives along the Oregon coast Sunday afternoon at 2 ft 21 seconds. These high-energy waves will have the ability to run much farther up the beaches and shorelines than normal and could produce dangerous sneaker waves. The swell will build to 4 to 6 feet at 19 seconds Sunday night then to around 8 to 10 feet at 17 seconds by Monday afternoon. So expect the sneaker wave risk will be most prominent Sunday night and Monday during the incoming high tides. Wave periods drop below 15 seconds Monday night; as a result, the risk of sneaker waves will lessen by Tuesday.

OR

Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA

None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS

Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for PZZ350-356.