Tulsa, Oklahoma

New AVIATION

• Rain chances continue through Saturday, spreading west to east before tapering off Saturday evening/night.
• Shower and storm chances increase Monday into Tuesday, a limited severe potential and a heavy rain threat exists Monday afternoon/night.
• A cold front early next week will drop temperatures closer to seasonal average midweek.

Scattered showers will continue through much of the afternoon, especially for locations north of I-40 as a mid level wave slowly lifts northeast through the region. Rainfall amounts will generally remain light, with amounts near a quarter of an inch possible across northeast Oklahoma. Rain chances will gradually shift eastward through the latter half of the afternoon and this evening, exiting northwest Arkansas later this evening. Lighting potential remain pretty low, though a few isolated lighting strike will be possible, mainly across far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas later this afternoon as meager elevated instability develops. Expect at least some patchy fog or drizzle to develop through the overnight periods owing to the increase in low level moisture across the region. The best potential for dense fog formations looks to reside across western parts of the forecast area where some short term clearing could occur later tonight.

Bowlan

A lull in activity is expected on Sunday as weak mid level ridging builds in between mid level systems. Partly cloudy skies will allow for temperatures to warm more Sunday afternoon, back into the mid to upper 70s for most locations.

Focus will then turn to the next storm system slated to affect the area later in the day Monday through Monday night into Tuesday. A robust upper low is currently moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest and will work its way south and east into the Plains by Monday afternoon. This system will link up with a plume of tropical moisture from the tropical eastern Pacific, drawing ample moisture northward over the Plains during the day Monday and Monday night. A surface low is progged to develop and deepen across the High Plains of eastern Colorado Monday morning and track northeastward into the Northern Plains by Monday night. A cold front will extend southward from this surface low across much of the Southern Plains and track eastward into Monday night. The tightening pressure gradient will lead to strong winds and wind gusts during the day Monday, with gusts near 40mph possible across northeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon. Some shower or elevated thunderstorm activity will be possible during the day Monday, mainly across northeast Oklahoma, associated with a strong low level jet preceding the main trough, but chances appear sporadic at best right now. recent model data and trends suggest a slow down of the upper trough and associated cold front as both hang back across western Oklahoma into Monday night. Thus storm chances have slowed down some, with chances beginning to increase Monday evening across northeast Oklahoma and tracking eastward during the overnight hours. Strong deep layer shear would be supportive of at least a limited severe threat, though questions remain on how much instability can develop ahead of the front, especially after sunset. Damaging wind gusts continue to be the primary threat, though all modes will be in play with ample low level shear in place to support a tornado threat, primarily across eastern Oklahoma.

Heavy rain will also be a threat with tropical moisture in place and localized areas of flash flooding will be possible in more flood prone locations. The trough axis and cold front should clear the region by Tuesday afternoon, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass through much of the week. Temperatures will trend down closer to normal ranges with cooler morning and pleasant afternoon highs. Another quick moving wave moves across the area on Thursday, but limited moisture will limit the rain chances with this system. Another, stronger system could be on tap for next weekend with more rain and storm chances, but significant model differences exists with the timing and evolution of this system currently.

Bowlan

Ongoing widespread showers will continue to impact area terminals through the afternoon with a gradual clearing from west to east from evening until early morning hours. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate area wide with lower ceilings and patchy fog and drizzle. Forecast will lower all sites into IFR conditions with potential for later forecasts to introduce a period of LIFR conditions. Slow improvement Sunday morning with flight level impacts through this forecast period.

TUL   61  75  61  79 /  40  10   0  40
FSM   61  77  61  81 /  50  10   0  10
MLC   61  77  61  81 /  20   0   0  10
BVO   59  74  56  78 /  40  10   0  60
FYV   58  75  54  76 /  60  10   0  10
BYV   61  72  60  75 /  80  10   0  10
MKO   58  75  59  80 /  30   0   0  10
MIO   59  74  59  78 /  50  10   0  20
F10   58  77  60  80 /  20   0   0  20
HHW   62  79  61  82 /  10   0   0  10

OK

None.

AR

None.