Lake Charles, Louisiana

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

• Unseasonably warm and humid conditions with patchy fog can be expected into Monday.
• An upper level low will move a cold front across late Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be a potential for some strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.
• Cooler more seasonably temperatures with dry conditions can be expected behind the front on Wednesday through the end of next week.

Scattered showers that develop during the afternoon are expected to decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating and a short wave moving off to the east leaving behind rather stable conditions. With stable conditions, light winds, and a very moist air mass, low stratus and patchy fog is expected to form after midnight and continue into the early morning hours. Fog may be locally dense, especially over rural grassy areas.

Upper level ridging will develop over the forecast area for the next couple of days between the departing short wave, and another stronger short wave moving across the Rockies. This will limit any shower activity, while temperatures remain unseasonably warm with humid conditions. Patchy fog will also be possible during the late night and early morning hours.

Strong Pacific energy will move across the Rockies by Monday with a surface low developing over the Northern Plains with an associated cold front trailing south of it. This system will move eastward with the Pacific cold front moving into the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon and moving across during the evening hours.

Southerly flow ahead of the upper level disturbance and cold front will bring in deep Gulf moisture with Precipitable Water Values increasing to around 1.9 inches which is well over the 90th percentile with the layer mean relative humidity values above 90 percent. Although the best upper level lift looks to be north of the forecast area, there should be enough forcing to work with the moisture to set up a line of showers and storms ahead of the front.

How much instability and strength of low level shear will tell how strong the convection gets. At this time, some strong wind gusts with the storms can not be ruled out. Also, with the high moisture values, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible that may cause some issues for nuisance poor drainage urban type street flooding.

Northwest flow on Wednesday will bring in drier conditions, with more seasonal temperatures.

07/Rua

A weak upper level disturbance will be moving across this afternoon to bring some scattered showers and occasional broken MVFR ceilings.

The shower activity will decrease by 01/00z. During the night, stable conditions, light winds, and a moist air mass will allow for low clouds and patchy fog to develop. Conditions will be MVFR to IFR.

07/Rua

Surface high will ridge down from the Mid-Atlantic region and provide light to modest easterly flow with low seas through Sunday. Low pressure will develop over the Plains allowing winds to become more southerly and increase through Tuesday. A cold front will move across late Tuesday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Modest northwest flow will develop behind the cold front on Wednesday.

An unseasonably warm and humid air mass will be in place through early next week with minimum afternoon relative humidity values from 60 to 70 percent. The high moisture will also bring about patchy fog at night into the early morning hours. The next chance for any significant rainfall will come late Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold front moves across. While this will be much welcomed it is not expected to move the needle towards drought class improvements. Behind the front, northwest winds will bring in drier conditions.

LA

None.

TX

None.

GM

None.