Albuquerque, New Mexico

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER

• A few light showers or weak thunderstorms will develop across portions of western and central New Mexico through the afternoon.
• Heavier rainfall will return Sunday into Monday across western New Mexico. Given saturated soils, there is a chance for localized flooding from persistent rainfall. River rises are expected across northern and western NM and there is a moderate to high chance for river flooding.
• There is a low (5-15%) chance that severe thunderstorms will develop across eastern New Mexico Sunday night, bringing a threat for hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

After a morning of low clouds and patchy fog, breaks of sunshine are expanding this afternoon before a swath of subtropical moisture feeds into NM later tonight. A few widely isolated and sparse showers and thunderstorms will be possible (10-20% chance) over western, central, and south central zones through the early evening, but instability is meager (LI`s of 0 to -1 C and SBCAPE of less than 200 J/kg) and large scale ascent will be lacking. These showers and storms would just produce a few hundredths of an inch immediately over very small footprints. Otherwise, temperatures are seasonable, and prevailing breezes are light to moderate (10-20 mph).

Into tonight, weather conditions will turn more unsettled as upstream features come into play. A shortwave trough, currently near 25N 130W, will be moving closer to the upper Baja peninsula with a subtropical jet segment (45-60 kt at 300 mb) preceding it. This will usher in subtropical moisture to southwestern states with PWATs soaring 4 to 6 standard deviations above normal for late Oct/early Nov and IVT (Integrated vapor transport) is showing 7 to 9 standard deviations above normal. Absolute PWAT values will reach 0.8 to 1.2 inch over many sectors of the forecast area, not ground-breaking by late July standards, but certainly by early November climatology. As the shortwave approaches, the gradient aloft will increase with enough subtropical jet dynamics to instill large scale ascent over western to north central NM tonight through Sunday morning. This will lead to widespread light to moderate nocturnal rain through this time with conditions remaining stable enough to support mostly stratiform characteristics. This would tend to keep rainfall rates low tonight through Sunday morning, but the stiffening southwesterlies will produce orographics that would enhance amounts on the Chuskas, Tusas, and other southwest-facing slopes of the Jemez. By Sunday afternoon, the shortwave will be working into western NM with modest destabilization occurring (LI`s of 0 to -3 C and SBCAPE rising to 500-750 J/kg over some central areas). The strongest forcing through the afternoon would extend from southwestern NM into north central areas with convection on the eastern leading edge with rainfall rates intensifying as the upstream Pacific Northwest low moves toward NV.

The subtropical shortwave trough will slide toward eastern NM/CO by midnight Sunday night with the next upstream trough trekking along the UT-AZ border. This will spread strongest upward forcing from central NM in the early evening toward the eastern border of NM by the early morning hours Monday. While nighttime stabilization would be occurring Sunday night, enough MUCAPE appears present (500-750 J/kg) as the large scale ascent arrives, and this will lead to the development of a north-south line of convection that will race eastward. Plenty of bulk shear will be readily available, and this could lead to strong to severe cells embedded in this QLCS early Sunday evening (central zones) into late evening and early Monday morning (eastern plains). New batches of rain and high elevation snow would redevelop in northwestern NM from midnight through early Monday morning as the former Pacific Northwest low overtakes the Rockies. A Pacific cold front would accompany, and temperatures aloft would drop significantly as the low/trough move in. This will cause snow levels to drop with accumulations of 1 to 4 inches forecast above a 9,500 to 10,500 range into Monday.

Through the afternoon Monday, the low would push into southwestern KS with wrap-around dynamics keeping the northern zones favored for any rain/snow, and the northwesterlies aloft would be very brisk on the back side. This will pose wind concerns, likely warranting Wind Advisories for central to east central and northeastern NM, perhaps even meeting High Wind criteria (gusts of 58 mph) near Clines Corners through the day Monday. The due northerly flow on the backside of the low would be most persistent in northeastern NM, lasting well into Monday night while remaining areas observe a weakening in speeds and a cessation of precipitation.

Much quieter weather will be on tap for Tuesday, as northwest flow aloft relaxes and remains considerably drier and cooler. High temperatures will remain slightly below normal on Tuesday.

Into Wednesday, a mid latitude shortwave trough is projected to cross northern CA and move into CO, perhaps closing into low per the GFS. Timing differences among deterministic models are still posing uncertainties, but there is fair consensus that associated precipitation would stay favored near and north of the NM-CO border through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Breezes would increase Wednesday during the passage of the wave/low, and daytime temperatures would remain seasonable.

Lighter west northwest flow aloft would follow on Thursday, and then a baggy trough would potentially develop upstream of NM into AZ on Friday. This dry and essentially barotropic upper level feature would slide southeastward, mostly bypassing NM into Saturday while a separate trough/low moves down the central plains. The latter feature could invoke some breezy to windy conditions with a cold front passage on Saturday, but otherwise and elsewhere temperatures look to remain within a few degrees of seasonal averages Thursday- Saturday along with mostly dry conditions.

Low clouds and fog that were present this morning are slowly rising and lifting, but several locations, particularly in eastern New Mexico, will continue to be impacted by MVFR ceilings (less than 3,000 ft). Ceilings over a few eastern locales may not fully lift or rise out of the MVFR category through the afternoon. A few stray light showers and weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out over western and central New Mexico, but these will be very isolated with gusty outflow winds and a few lightning strikes being the main impacts through early this evening. A more widespread and persistent batch of rain will spread over west central, northwestern, and portions of north central New Mexico late tonight into Sunday morning. This will reintroduce MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities with rain. While the eastern plains of the state will not observe much, if any, rainfall overnight, areas of fog and low ceilings will redevelop early Sunday morning with widespread IFR ceilings (less than 1,000 ft) and visibilities (less than 3 SM).

After very spotty and minimal shower and thunderstorm activity today, more widespread rainfall will begin to overtake western to north central NM tonight through Sunday morning, providing steady, fuel-soaking rainfall. Most of the forecast area will also undergo excellent humidity recovery through Sunday morning with areas of fog even developing. Rainfall rates will even ramp up over these western to north central zones Sunday afternoon as thunderstorms take shape. Storms will spread into more central and eastern zones during the evening and overnight hours on a less widespread and more scattered basis with lower rainfall amounts. Rain will continue over northern zones into Monday, turning to light snow in high elevations. Winds will turn strong on Monday, feeling much more brisk with gusts of 35 to 55 mph forecast (highest speeds in central highlands to eastern plains). Cooler temperatures and elevated humidity will prevent any critical fire weather concerns from developing Monday, despite the gusty conditions. A more tranquil and drier stretch is forecast to set up for the remainder of the week, although breezes will increase to 15 to 30 mph in several areas on Wednesday.

Farmington......................  50  62  44  55 /  80 100  90  20
Dulce...........................  41  56  38  50 /  80 100 100  70
Cuba............................  46  57  39  49 /  70 100  90  60
Gallup..........................  48  60  41  53 / 100 100  90  10
El Morro........................  46  60  39  51 /  80 100 100  40
Grants..........................  48  62  42  54 /  80  90 100  30
Quemado.........................  49  61  41  54 /  70  90 100  60
Magdalena.......................  51  65  45  58 /  50  60  90  40
Datil...........................  47  61  42  53 /  70  80  90  40
Reserve.........................  51  61  44  61 /  90 100 100  40
Glenwood........................  55  65  46  63 /  90 100 100  50
Chama...........................  38  51  35  44 /  70 100 100  90
Los Alamos......................  46  57  42  51 /  70 100 100  60
Pecos...........................  43  59  40  50 /  40  80 100  60
Cerro/Questa....................  40  56  39  48 /  30 100 100  80
Red River.......................  34  54  37  43 /  20  90 100  90
Angel Fire......................  33  58  38  45 /  20  70 100  80
Taos............................  40  60  41  51 /  30  90 100  80
Mora............................  40  59  41  50 /  20  70  90  50
Espanola........................  46  64  44  56 /  50  90 100  70
Santa Fe........................  47  60  45  53 /  40  90 100  70
Santa Fe Airport................  46  64  44  57 /  50  80 100  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  67  47  58 /  50  70 100  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  69  48  61 /  50  70 100  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  47  70  44  63 /  50  70  90  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  68  48  60 /  60  80  90  50
Belen...........................  55  71  49  65 /  30  50  90  40
Bernalillo......................  50  69  47  60 /  60  80 100  60
Bosque Farms....................  51  70  46  64 /  40  60  90  40
Corrales........................  52  69  47  60 /  60  80 100  50
Los Lunas.......................  53  71  47  64 /  40  60  90  40
Placitas........................  50  67  47  57 /  60  80 100  60
Rio Rancho......................  53  68  48  59 /  60  80  90  50
Socorro.........................  56  72  51  67 /  40  40  90  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  62  43  52 /  50  70 100  70
Tijeras.........................  49  64  45  54 /  50  70 100  70
Edgewood........................  47  64  45  54 /  50  60 100  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  65  45  56 /  40  50 100  50
Clines Corners..................  46  63  43  52 /  30  40 100  30
Mountainair.....................  48  64  44  56 /  30  40 100  70
Gran Quivira....................  49  63  46  57 /  20  40 100  80
Carrizozo.......................  52  69  50  61 /  20  20 100  70
Ruidoso.........................  48  65  46  56 /  20  20  90  50
Capulin.........................  42  61  44  56 /   5  20  80  50
Raton...........................  41  66  44  59 /   5  20  90  40
Springer........................  42  68  47  60 /   5  30  80  20
Las Vegas.......................  44  61  44  55 /  20  60  90  10
Clayton.........................  48  66  52  65 /   0  20  80  40
Roy.............................  46  63  48  60 /   5  30  90  20
Conchas.........................  52  69  55  67 /   5  20  90   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  68  53  64 /  10  20  90   5
Tucumcari.......................  54  72  56  69 /   5  10  70   0
Clovis..........................  53  70  55  69 /   5  20  70   5
Portales........................  53  72  56  72 /   5  10  50   5
Fort Sumner.....................  53  69  55  68 /  10  20  70   5
Roswell.........................  55  73  56  74 /  10  10  50   0
Picacho.........................  52  75  53  67 /  10  10  60   0
Elk.............................  50  71  51  64 /  10  20  60   5

Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for NMZ201>211.