North Platte, Nebraska

• Patchy fog, locally dense, across southwest NE into the southeast panhandle through mid morning. Shower chances increasing across much of the area by late morning into this afternoon.
• Showers become widespread Sunday night, with embedded thunderstorms.
• Rain continues Monday and Monday night, with showers eventually tracking out of the region on Tuesday.
• Very gusty conditions are possible Monday and Tuesday, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts greater than 50 mph.
• Cooler, drier weather returns mid week to late week.

Today and Tonight...A shortwave trough currently from southeast KS into north central OK will lift northeast into central NE through northwest MO by late this afternoon. Stratus with patchy fog will occur this morning, with some dense fog possible across southwest NE into the central Sandhills through mid morning. Increasing shower chances this morning across southwest into central NE. Shower chances this afternoon across most of the forecast area, with 50 to 70 POPs near and east of Highway 83. Rainfall amounts will be light however from a trace to around 0.10 inch. Additional chances for showers will also exist this evening for areas east of Highway 83, with dry conditions west. Highs today will range from 55 to 60, except low 60s far northern Nebraska. South winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight in the mid to upper 40s with patchy fog returning to southwest Nebraska into the western Sandhills.

Sunday and Sunday night...At 12Z Sunday, a deep upper trough will be onshore along the West Coast, as a southern stream trough moves into Baja Mexico. Weak upper ridging will exist across the Central Plains. The upper trough will progress eastward Sunday, and move over the Intermountain West and moving into the Four Corners further south by 06Z Monday. Strong warm air advection at H85 will advect into western Nebraska with shower chance increasing to 40 to 60 percent by late evening, then categorical much of the area after midnight. Elevated instability with MUCAPEs from 200-500 J/KG overnight supportive of a chance for thunderstorms as well. NBM probabilities of exceeding 0.25 inch is from 60 to 70 percent near and east of Highway 83 for Sunday night. Highs Sunday 60 to 65 with south southeast winds increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon and persisting into Sunday night. This will keep lows Sunday night mild in the upper 40s west to lower 50s east.

The upper level trough remains just to the west of the region on Monday, which will help track a surface low across the region. The upper level pattern will also continue to support Pacific moisture advection across the region, which will continue to support rain chances throughout the day on Monday into the overnight hours. While most of the region is expected to receive rainfall, the best chances for higher rainfall remains areas east of Highway 83. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show an 80 to 90 percent chance of total rainfall exceeding half an inch for areas along and east of Highway 83, further building confidence in this possibility. However, with the low pressure system tracking across the region, very strong winds are expected, with very gusty conditions Monday afternoon. Throughout the afternoon, the windiest conditions are expected to be west of Highway 83, where sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph are possible, with gusts of 50 to 55 mph possible. By the evening, expecting that most of the region will be seeing these gusty conditions.

Overnight, a cold front tracks in from the northwest, which will continue to support precipitation and gusty winds through the night. Latest guidance brings the cold front in slightly quicker, which may introduce some cooler overnight lows across portions of western Nebraska. However, lows are expected to remain above freezing and temperatures aloft are expected to hover right around freezing. This should support mostly liquid precipitation, though cannot rule out some snow mixing in across portions of northwest Nebraska, especially for areas around Pine Ridge. Precipitation is expected to fall off as the front passes, with most of the showers out of the region by mid afternoon. However, will still see some very gusty winds again on Tuesday, with sustained northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph, gusting 45 to 50 mph.

Wednesday onward, expecting a cooler, drier pattern will settle in across the region. Highs each day are only expected to climb into the lower to mid 50s, with lows around freezing. However, by the weekend, another upper level trough begins to track in from the west, which may support precipitation chances next weekend. There is still some uncertainty in timing, so will continue to monitor the forecast trends for now.

Isolated showers will persist through this evening impacting mainly areas along and east of US-83. Expect reduced visibilities due to falling rain and light fog as low as 2 miles at times. Ceilings will generally remain at or below 1000 feet across southwest Nebraska. Further to the north, ceilings will gradually lift to 2000 feet by Sunday morning. Precipitation will push out by late evening giving way to a brief dry period before the next system arrives Sunday night.

None.