Sioux Falls, South Dakota

• After a brief break, areas of developing showers will return by late afternoon mainly west of I-29 with light accumulations.
• Periods of light to moderate rain will lift through the area from Sunday night into Monday. Ensemble guidance continues shows moderate to high confidence in 1 inch amounts west of I-29. Localized ponding will be possible in low-lying spots.
• An active pattern aloft will lead to additional showers on Tuesday and Wednesday. Any resulting accumulations will be light.
• Breezy to gusty winds return on Monday and Tuesday with gusts between 30-40 mph expected at times. Locally higher gusts will be possible across southcentral SD.

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: Taking a look across the area, the dreary and wet conditions persists as lingering showers gradually lifting through the Highway-14 corridor this afternoon and areas of fog continue to erode. While a brief lull in activity could develop through the late afternoon hours, short-range guidance continues to show a few additional showers developing by early evening mainly west of highway-81 as another wave swings through. Any resulting accumulations would be light at best. Lastly, with overcast skies likely continuing through the evening hours; decided to slightly increased overnight lows by blending in some of the CONSshort resulting in temperatures in the low to mid 50s with the warmest conditions along our River Valleys.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Not many forecast changes expected into Sunday as increasing warm air advection (WAA) aloft keeps us locked into the overcast and dreary conditions for most of the day. While most areas should remain dry during the day, a few durnally-driven sprinkles to light showers could develop in the lower cloud bases during the afternoon with limited accumulations. From here, the focus continues to be on the increased rain chances from Sunday night into Monday. Looking aloft, most of our rain chances (70%-100%) will be in response to a developing Colorado Low lifting from the Nebraska Panhandle into central and eastern SoDak throughout the day. Widespread rain is expected as increase lift in the warm air advective wing leads to pockets of light to moderate rain for the first half of the day. From here, we`ll likely lose mid-level saturation during the afternoon hours as the dry slot progresses through the area. With this in mind, any lingering activity will begin to dissipate as it lifts northeastwards.

A few isolated thunderstorms can`t be completely rule out across northwestern IA giving the low CAPE/high shear environment and increased lift ahead of the triple point. However, confidence continues to decrease in any stronger activity mainly due to afternoon development across eastern Nebraska and northwestern Missouri effectively cutting off our moisture pool. Otherwise, additional precipitation chances will return from Monday night into Tuesday morning as the cold front swings through. Shifting gears to amounts, ensemble guidance continues to show moderate to high confidence (60%-80%) in at least 1 inch of QPF mainly along and west of I-29 with lesser amounts (0.50" of an inch or less) elsewhere. With trends continue to pull the highest amounts towards central SD with the deformation zone/warm-front, wouldn`t be surprised if QPF amounts continue to trend downwards and northwestwards moving forward especially as more short-range guidance gets ingested into the NBM QPF. Nonetheless, our flash flood risk continues to look low with mainly concern being localized ponding in low-lying areas. Lastly, with a tightening SPG on both Monday and Tuesday; expect surface winds to strengthen with gust between 30-40 mph expected on both day.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, an active pattern continues aloft with medium-range guidance struggling to resolve the location of the upper-level low. While confidence is low, can`t rule out some wrap around showers throughout the day on Wednesday especially east of I-29. Quieter conditions will return by Thursday as mid-level ridging progresses through the area. This along with the return mid-level warm air advection (WAA) should lead to slightly warmer temperatures heading into the weekend with highs increase from the low to mid 50s by Wednesday into the low to mid 60s by Thursday.

Taking a look at satellite imagery, we`re starting to see ceilings improve this afternoon with mainly VFR conditions along the Missouri River Valley and MVFR to LIFR conditions everywhere else. Should see conditions gradually improve to mainly MVFR by late afternoon before cigs decrease overnight with a mix of MVFR to IFR possible. Tried to time out the improvements for each TAF site. Hardest was KFSD since we were right on the edge of the transition zone. Otherwise, light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue to end the TAF period.

SD

None.

MN

None.

IA

None.

NE

None.