Topeka, Kansas

• Scattered light rain showers continue through the night.
• Windy and wet Monday with a chance for severe storms.
• Cooler and mostly dry conditions favored for the last half of the week.

Another shortwave is moving out of the TX/OK Panhandles into Kansas with renewed moisture transport ahead of it. This supports another period of scattered showers this evening/overnight. Instability is minimal, so the threat for thunderstorms is very low.

Temperatures through Saturday stay on the mild side of normal beneath persistent cloud cover and southerly lowlevel flow. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

Midlevel ridging will briefly build in over the central Plains on Sunday behind the departing shortwave. Lowlevel flow remains southerly, and the air mass stays moist, but largescale ascent is weaker, so Sundays forecast trends toward mostly dry for much of the area, but isolated showers can`t be ruled out.

Attention then turns to a deeper, more amplified trough digging into the High Plains, with lee cyclogenesis and a strengthening surface low forecast to move quickly into northcentral Kansas Monday. A robust 5060 kt lowlevel jet will develop ahead of a rapidly advancing cold front with surface wind gusts around 40 mph likely. Instability appears marginal, but shear will be ample given the highly dynamic nature of the system. The overall severe threat will be sensitive to the degree of cloud cover, morning/early afternoon rainfall and timing of the front. If cloud cover and rain clears out by the afternoon then we could see enough destabilization for stronger storms. Given the shear profile, all severe threats would be possible in any super cells that develop. However, the more consistent signal is for cloud cover and scattered showers/storms to linger long enough to inhibit clearing and destabilization, leading to more of a heavy rain threat than anything else. With PWATs once again in record territory, rain rates in the 2-3 inch an hour range will be likely.

As the upper low slows or becomes partially cut off from the main westerlies Tuesday, showers may persist, especially east of Highway 75, with cooler air advecting in behind the front. Highs on Tuesday trend back into the 60s, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s by Tuesday night. Confidence is moderate in the presence of showers, but lower in their exact coverage and duration, given model differences in the evolution of the cutoff low.

By midweek, ensemble guidance suggests the largerscale trough will gradually shift east and heights will flatten over the Plains, allowing for a slow drying trend. However, model spread increases after Tuesday regarding how quickly the upper low exits and whether additional shortwaves rotate through the region. Temperatures should settle into a more seasonal range: highs mid60s and lows mid40s.

VFR becoming MVFR tonight. Scattered rain showers will continue through the TAF period, but coverage and timing confidence is too low to place prevailing rain in the TAF. Lower stratus will move in tonight.

None.