Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, Missouri

• Isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers today.
• Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

Water vapor imagery shows another shortwave trough moving northeast through Oklahoma currently. Forcing from this shortwave should result in an increase in coverage of showers late this morning/early this afternoon across eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri. This activity then lifts to the north and east with time through the afternoon and evening hours. While it doesn`t look like a washout, it does look like there will be isolated to scattered showers across the area at some point through the day today/ this evening. So anyone doing outside activities may need an umbrella with them. Fortunately, the chances for storms looks low with only weak instability available. Overnight, as that shortwave starts to move northeast of the area and we move into the subsident regime, showers will decrease in coverage and eventually come to an end. Sunday, shortwave ridging builds through the area and that should keep the area dry as the next system moves through the Western US.

The Monday system is much stronger than the previous shortwaves. Strong southerly flow ahead of this system will result in very strong moisture transport into the area. In fact, precipitable water values are at the max values for the NAEFS climatological period across northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. So this is 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. Additionally, there is potential eastern Kansas and western Missouri are in the left front quadrant of the upper-jet moving into the area ahead of the strong shortwave. Strong flow through much of the troposphere will result in strong wind shear, potentially in excess of 50kts. Instability, though weak, is available in this strongly forced environment and we continue to have the potential for a high-shear, low-CAPE severe weather event. There are a couple scenarios that cold unfold here. Storms could develop in the warm sector over eastern Kansas, well ahead of the front. This looks possible, though unlikely, based on some of the forecast soundings in that area showing minimal or no CIN by the afternoon hours. A more plausible scenario is that storms develop along or just ahead of the front/ dryline well west of the area and then track east into the area later in the evening or overnight hours. There could also be some combination of both of these with storms developing earlier in the warm sector, then a line of storms moving into the area in association with the front, though this also seems less likely. Any one of these would have the potential for strong to severe storms and given the strong kinematics, strong to damaging winds will be the most likely hazard. Strong 0-3km shear may also support a tornado risk as well if a mature line of storms moves into the area. The latest Day 3 Convective Outlook brings a marginal risk of severe weather to eastern Kansas and western Missouri. A slight risk clips the extreme southwestern portions of the forecast area.

In the wake of this system, temperatures trend closer to normal for the later half of next week. Normal highs are in the upper 50s so even though we cool down, highs still look to be a few degrees above normal with highs forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s.

VFR conditions are expected through the evening on Saturday. Isolated to scattered -RA will linger throughout the region Saturday afternoon and evening but appreciable VIS changes not anticipated. CIGs will fall to MVFR overnight before becoming SCT late Sunday morning. Winds should prevail out of the east/southeast for the entirety of the period.

MO

None.

KS

None.