Jackson, Kentucky

• Mainly dry weather with warm afternoons persists into the weekend.
• A low potential for rain will return on Sunday through Monday morning, with a more significant system bringing a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of next week.

Active southwesterly mid-level flow is now in place across eastern Kentucky as a mid-level ridge axis has moved north and northeast of the area. This will usher mid-level moisture across the region through the short-term period. However, the low levels remain under southerly to southeasterly downslope flow, which will keep low levels dry while moist air moves into the area overhead. A surface warm front is currently lifting north and northwest across central KY through the remainder of today, and will continue lifting into IN and IL into tonight, leaving a low-level lee trough across the OH Valley in its wake.

A leading shortwave crosses the area this evening, with another approaching from the west Sunday and crossing the area Sunday night into Monday. The shortwaves will be inducing stronger south to southeasterly flow in the lower levels as they approach, especially Sunday, which will mitigate rainfall amounts across the area. As a result, expect any measurable rainfall to be confined to areas primarily west through north of the rain shadowed areas on the northwest side of the Cumberland Mountains, mainly along and west of I-75 and north of KY Highway 30. Highest rainfall amounts through early Monday, though likely to remain less than one-tenth of an inch, will be toward the Lake Cumberland region and extending north along the Bluegrass counties.

At the start of the long term period, a well defined shortwave will be located just west of the forecast area. Otherwise, midlevel ridging will dominate much of the eastern CONUS; meanwhile, farther west, a substantial trough will be located over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Northeast, with a cold air damming pattern on the other side of the Appalachians. For our area, this pattern will favor southeasterly downslope winds, which should work to suppress dewpoints somewhat, even as total column moisture increases (with PW values surpassing 1 inch in most locations, anomalously moist compared to climatology). Despite the size of this shortwave, height falls won`t be particularly intense, and this, in combination with meager low level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 30s and low 40s), should work against any widespread rain, particularly east of I-75. The best chance for appreciable rain will be in our southwestern counties, where low level moisture should be more robust, with rain chances and QPF generally decreasing closer to Virginia and West Virginia. Even in our southwestern counties, however, a lack of instability should keep rain totals unimpressive.

Following the passage of this rather unimpressive shortwave, a more substantial system will arrive next week, bringing more widespread rain chances. Aloft, ridging will attempt to quickly build back in by late Monday, though a second and more subtle shortwave will cross through the area later in the day, with associated cloud cover keeping lows fairly warm in the upper 40s and low 50s. Should this wave be weaker than currently modeled, it is possible some clearing allows valleys to cool slightly more than is currently forecast; however, given ensemble preference towards a mostly cloudy sky, terrain distinctions have been neglected for now. Tuesday will also be dry during the day as ridging amplifies aloft over our area, with the aforementioned deep trough to the west now featuring two distinct closed lows aloft: one in the Upper Midwest and another farther south near the Southern Plains, although there is significant model discrepancy regarding the positioning and evolution of this southern feature. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with this potent system will push northeast, with southeasterly to southerly winds locally ahead of this system, but atmospheric moisture will be very high, with LREF mean PW values in the range of 1.1-1.3 inches, firmly above the 90th percentile according to climatology. This moist environment and strong source of forcing will set the stage for widespread rainfall, with the highest rain chances currently on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. With this system, a tight pressure gradient will be in place, with fairly strong flow just above the surface; despite sizable model uncertainty, LREF mean 925 mb flow is around 25-30 kt for much of the forecast area, indicating increasing confidence in breezy conditions for our highest terrain as this system moves through. Even so, despite such potent kinematics, meager instability should limit any threat of severe weather.

Looking ahead, PoPs look to decrease on Friday, with a trend towards cooler weather. However, immense model spread regarding the evolution of this system adds considerable uncertainty by the end of the period.

ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as mid-level clouds gradually thicken and lower, with some potential for lower clouds (yet still VFR conditions) possible after 15z Sunday, especially toward KSME and KLOZ. Light winds will continue out of the east and southeast but remain less than 10 kts. Winds will become light and variable at the valley terminals around sunset, before increasing again after 12z Sunday.

None.