Midland/Odessa, Texas

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

• Scattered showers this afternoon/evening over parts of the western higher terrain, then patchy mist/fog late evening for plains and valleys on Halloween night.
• A very low but nonzero chance of severe weather across the SE NM plains Sunday afternoon/evening, with damaging winds the main threat.
• Increasing southerly winds shifting to westerly Monday, with strong westerly winds (40-50 mph, gusts 65 mph) for Guadalupes/Delawares.
• Mild (60s and 70s F highs, 40s and 50s F lows) with low rain chances Tuesday into the end of the week.

Mid to upper ridging builds this weekend ahead of another mid to upper disturbance. This will allow for drier weather today and most of tomorrow. Following low clouds lifting from southwest to northeast from mid-morning through mid afternoon today, highs rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s F for most of the area as thinning cloud cover allows for more daytime heating. High-res CAMs indicate more shower activity over the Guadalupes, Davis` and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos than in previous runs despite very low (less than 15%) rain chances, so showery weather may stick around and complicate any last minute outdoor preparations for Halloween festivities. Light and variable winds shift back to more consistently south/southeast by evening in response to a approaching system developing into the Intermountain West. Winds may be more "brisk" (5 mph or greater) than this morning and keep lows a few degrees warmer in the mid 50s to mid 60s F (as opposed to mid 50s to lower 60s F like this morning) as a result. However, clearer skies overhead and still recently saturated soils from widespread wetting rains on Thursday and Friday will again allow patchy mist/fog to develop over plains and valleys by evening and continuing overnight. This will provide a spooky atmospheric backdrop by late Halloween night for some trick or treaters!

A spike in mid to upper ridging Sunday allows for more sinking motion over the area. Therefore, we can expect highs to warm back into the mid 70s to 80s F across the area. However, shower/storm chances will be increasing over the SE NM plains by afternoon. This will be in association with the approaching mid to upper disturbance spreading increased lift and focusing of moisture aloft. This will be favorable for isolated storm development consolidating over time, and some high-res CAMs depict a broken tail end line of storms moving east/northeast over the SE NM plains by late afternoon/early evening. If that was not enough, model forecast soundings depict high (50 knots or greater) southwest winds aloft over the SE NM plains from the mid through upper troposphere by late afternoon, and shear increasing above 35 knots while low-level helicity increases above 80 m2/s2. Should storms hold together, both parameters will be favorable for damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes. SPC has most of SE NM in a MRGL risk Sunday, even as greatest forcing bypasses the SE NM plains to the north and rain chances stay very low (less than 20%). Therefore, we will watch for a brief window for severe weather across the northernmost SE NM plains tomorrow afternoon/evening, even though storms are not guaranteed. Increasing southerly winds 15 mph to 25 mph with higher gusts keep lows warmer than previous nights - in the upper 50s to 60s F Sunday night. Increased winds Sunday night set the stage for continued windy weather early week. Read the Long Term Discussion for more details.

A near surface Pacific cold front accompanies the mid to upper disturbance as it develops into the Southern Great Plains Monday. Southerly winds shift to westerly behind the front and increase above 40 to 50 mph over the Guadalupes/Delawares, with gusts up to 65 mph indicated in forecast grids. These winds persist through much of Monday afternoon/evening. The duration of strong winds has prompted a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding passes during that time frame. Not out of the question that some patchy blowing dust during strong winds may occur as well near the Guadalupes/Delawares and surrounding foothills, despite recent rains. Otherwise, 25 to 35 mph winds can also be expected for the plains/lowlands to the east behind the Pacific cold front, with low (25% to 35%) rain chances and warmer temperatures in the 70s and 80s F ahead of the cold front for the eastern Permian Basin into Terrell County. Due to the more progressive and zonal upper air pattern that follows the disturbance, the modified Pacific air will only result in highs dropping down into the 60s to lower 70s F, lows mid 40s to mid 50s F behind the front.

With the front clearing the area Tuesday and winds shifting to northwesterly/northerly and decreasing, continued CAA brings highs back down to the 60s to 70s F range in the mild, terrain modified Pacific airmass. However, with a progressive upper air pattern keeping alternating ridging and troughing aloft through end of the week, highs and lows continue to fluctuate within the 60s to 70s F and mid 40s to mid 50s F range each day and night, respectively. After the relatively humid and rainy pattern, rain chances will remain near zero for the rest of the week. The combination of the mild air, greater diurnal variation, and longer nights will be in sync with seasonal norms for early November.

Cigs will be highly variable for the first 12 hours of the forecast period as skies attempt to scatter out and winds veer. However, mid/high cloud will complicate the process. From around 06Z Sunday on, cigs/vsbys will crater to LIFR at times all terminals, w/little improvement by the end of the forecast period.

Big Spring               60  76  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 57  78  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   63  76  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            60  82  64  83 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           56  72  57  66 /   0   0  10   0
Hobbs                    55  74  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    54  75  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     60  75  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   61  75  65  79 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     59  79  63  80 /   0   0   0   0

TX

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM

High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.