Los Angeles/Oxnard, California

31/247 AM.

Rain chances continue through much of the weekend, with the peak of the rain likely occuring Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Warmer and drier conditions expected next week.

31/802 AM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate cloudy skies across the area this morning. Radar shows some scattered showers across the Santa Barbara Channel, impacting the coastal plain of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, everything still looks on track. Scattered showers will continue through the afternoon, then the main rain will move into the area this evening and overnight. In terms of amounts, most areas, through Sunday, look to receive 0.75 inches or less. However, there is the potential for some areas to receive between 1 to 2 inches in heavier shower activity through the period. Both the HRRR and RRFS indicate this potential for localized amounts in excess of one inch. So, it is something to watch through the day. As for rainfall rates, will expect 0.33 inches/hour or less with localized rates around 0.50 inches/hour with heavier showers.

Overall, current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So, no significant updates are expected.

***From Previous Discussion***

Still a somewhat low confidence forecast even as the system is basically at our doorstep. Certainly rain amounts will be higher to the south given the current orientation and trajectory of the storm. Precipitable water values are still around 1.5" south of of Pt Conception which is reasonably high for this area. And satellite images show some cooling cloud tops as the front edge of the storm is just now reaching the coast. However, the 00z models definitely dialed down the rain amounts, by almost 50% from previous runs, which could be an indication that the storm will be sliding more to the south.

In any case, despite some favorable features, this storm is unlikely to generate too many impacts with rain rates expected to remain below a half inch per hour, and in most areas well below that. Latest high res models are generally following the downward trend in rain amounts, but still maintain some small chances (20-30%) of rain totals around an inch in favorable upslope areas like Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains. But even those totals would not likely pose any problems. Perhaps the biggest impact of this storm will be on the trick-or-treaters outside on Saturday evening which is likely when rain intensities start increasing. But there is still uncertainty with this as well as some of the higher res models are holding off the heavier rain rates until after 9pm, especially in LA County. In any case, be prepared for at least some light rain in the late afternoon and evening.

Rain Saturday night will taper off Sunday morning for all except far south and east LA County. And dry everywhere by Sunday afternoon. Additional warming Monday with a high pressure returning to the West coast but most areas still in the 60s and 70s.

31/356 AM.

For the extended, models start out in good agreement on Tuesday, but then start to diverge noticeably Wednesday through Friday. On Tuesday, the upper level ridge will still be over the area with weak offshore surface flow. So, will expect clear skies, comfortable temperatures (upper 60s and 70s) and some weak offshore winds.

Models are in pretty unanimous agreement in maintaining a dry weather pattern through the end of next week, but temperatures still either near or slightly below normal. And no signs of any significant offshore patterns developing. The high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place at least through early the next week (week of Nov 9), but there are indications of another upper low moving into the Pac NW later in that week.

31/1501Z.

At 15Z at KLAX, there was no inversion or marine layer.

Occasional -SHRA with MVFR-VFR ceilings and visibility at most airports through 24Z, becoming more persistent with -RA tonight. Isolated and brief IFR conditions are possible tonight, especially from KSBA through KLGB. Improvement likely 12-18Z Sunday. Wind wind gusts of 20-30 knots likely at most coastal sites starting Sunday 21Z.

KLAX...High confidence in VFR ceilings common through 02Z, with occasional -MVFR SHRA possible. -RA with MVFR ceilings will likely become more common by 06Z, with possible brief IFR RA under and heavier cells. Improvement likely by 15-18Z. East winds likely each morning with a chance of reaching 8-10 knots through 17Z today (20%) and 06-15Z Sunday (30%). West winds 20-30 knots likely starting 21Z Sunday.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR ceilings common through 02Z, with occasional -MVFR SHRA possible. -RA with MVFR ceilings will likely become more common by 06Z, with occasional IFR RA under and heavier cells. Improvement likely by 15-18Z.

31/743 AM.

Moderate confidence in winds and seas staying below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through this evening, except for a low chance of brief gusty downdraft winds with any heavier showers.

Post-frontal SCA-level W-NW winds and choppy seas are likely to form later tonight from the Central Coast to San Nicolas Island, then spread to most coastal waters on Sunday including the entire Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Monica Bay. The winds turn to NE on Monday and will likely stay below SCA-levels. NE winds under SCA- levels likely to follow on Monday. There is a chance for another round of post-frontal winds on Tuesday, but likely a step below in strength compared to Sunday.

CA

NONE.

PZ

NONE.