Aberdeen, South Dakota

• Fog with pockets of visibility at or below 1/2 mile will continue through mid afternoon.
• An initial round of light rain or drizzle through mid afternoon will be followed by an additional round from late evening into late Sunday morning. Overall rainfall through Sunday morning will be around a tenth of an inch or less.
• More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Monday through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Plains. While there is low confidence in amounts at this time, the chance to see two of rain ranges from 50 to 75 percent, increasing from west to east across the forecast area.
• Winds turn northwesterly and increase on the back side of the low pressure center Monday afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 45 miles per hour will be possible along and west of the Missouri River.

Fog is slowly eroding south to north early this afternoon. However, there are still pockets of fog with visibility down at or below 1/2 mile as of 18Z. A Special Weather Statement has been used for this phenomenon due to the transient nature and only limited locations where the visibility is below 1/2 mile. Otherwise, the forecast was expanded to include a more widespread 15-30% chance of light rain over northeastern SD into west central MN. Cloud cover was also increased closer to or at 100%.

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the area are in the upper 40s to low 50s with winds out of the east to southeast at less than 10 mph. Some light showers may pop up between now and mid morning across much of the forecast area. Little accumulation is expected around and west of the Missouri River with up to a tenth expected east of the Missouri River. Some fog may also be possible mainly across the western half of the forecast area, but with the lack of precipitation, this could end up being low stratus with not much of a reduction of visibility. Models are showing another round of light showers or drizzle moving in from the south this evening into Sunday morning, again, only light accumulations are expected.

The main story for the forecast remains the early work week precipitation. With an incoming low pressure system, we have widespread chances of at least 70% for about 24 hours. PWATs are still in the 1 to 1.25 inch range and still in that 99th or higher NAEFS percentile. The NBM chances for accumulations higher than two inches in 24 hours ending Tuesday morning is 50 to 75% around and east of a line from Leola to Faulkton to Chamberlain. These totals seem to be rather high and have increased dramatically in the last 24 hours. However, ensembles do show a 25th to 75th percentile range of 1 to 3 inches. Would not be surprised if totals come back down towards an inch in the next few days. Overall confidence in totals is low at this time.

Temperatures through Sunday are still expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal, with highs mainly in the 60s. Colder air moves in behind the low and front Monday and will bring highs down to around normal for this time of year. Monday also looks to be quite windy with gusts of at least 35 to 40 mph for the majority of the forecast area, some locally higher gusts of 45 to 50 may also be possible for central SD. Keep an eye on this in the next few days. These stronger gusts look to continue overnight and into Tuesday.

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mainly LIFR conditions continue at the TAF sites, with ceilings around 200ft agl. The exception is MBG which has IFR ceilings. The lower visibility will continue to slowly improve south to north this afternoon. Brief VFR conditions are forecast for all but ATY late this evening into the early overnight hours before lower ceilings return to low end MVFR to IFR levels.

SD

None.

MN

None.