Peachtree City/Atlanta, Georgia

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

• Mild and breezy conditions today with only a few sprinkles around this evening.
• Isolated to widely scattered rain showers return for some on Sunday but most stay dry with near seasonal temperatures into early next week.
• Increasing potential for unsettled weather mid-to-late next week.

Wedge like conditions will continue to dominate the short term with strong east to northeast winds at 10-15 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph during the afternoon. Winds will largely remain elevated during the overnight hours and continue to be breezy tomorrow.

Relative humidity values will hover around 60% through the overnight hours and into tomorrow. Dry conditions that continue to push in will limit the amount of rainfall we`re expecting to less than a quarter inch in the scattered showers that follow. The best chance for light rain is mostly across western Georgia, and some portions of eastern GA may not actually see any precip at all.

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s across the CWA with overnight lows in the 50s. Some areas of north Georgia will fall into the 40s across the higher elevations. Temps will be cooler tomorrow, limited to the low to mid 60s behind the front. Some areas in the far southern portions of the CWA will likely still see temps in the 70s.

Early next week will feature a brief return to dry conditions as the shallow `wedge` remains in place and a ridge builds up from the Gulf across the Georgia. This pattern will shift quite dramatically by late Tuesday, as a strong trough ejects out of the Rockies and across the Plains. Winds aloft will flip out of the southwest and strengthen, bringing a surge in moisture with PWAT values climbing from 1" to up around 1.75-2". Between the interaction with the wedge and the uncertainty in the timing, strength, and phasing of the trough as it moves into the Southeast, specific details of the forecast for the Wednesday/Thursday time period remain uncertain. At the very least, this pattern will support widespread rain and storms over our area. Any potential threat for severe weather or flash flooding will become clearer in the coming days. One aspect of the forecast we do have high confidence in is that temperatures will remain mild (highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s or 60s) throughout the week. As you can imagine, model spread remains high for Friday into next weekend, but generally has much drier and cooler air dropping in on the backside of the trough.

OVC VFR will continue for the rest of the day and into the overnight period. A slight chance of -SHRA will be possible after 06Z with CIGS falling to MVFR. Winds will be strong out of the ENE at 8-12kts with gusts as high as 25kts through the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update

Medium on -SHRA.High on all other elements.

Vaughn

Athens          54  67  53  70 /   0  20  20   0
Atlanta         57  67  56  71 /  30  40  20   0
Blairsville     49  62  48  65 /  10  30  30   0
Cartersville    54  68  53  72 /  30  40  20   0
Columbus        59  71  57  76 /  20  40  20   0
Gainesville     55  64  55  67 /   0  40  20   0
Macon           57  71  55  75 /  20  30  30   0
Rome            55  67  53  72 /  40  50  20   0
Peachtree City  54  68  53  72 /  30  40  20   0
Vidalia         59  76  59  78 /  20  30  20  10

None.