Amarillo, Texas

New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION

• Another round of overcast and foggy conditions are possible Sunday morning with chances of dense fog present in the Southeastern Panhandles.
• A new system is expected to bring more storms late Sunday into Monday with potential to see severe thunderstorms across the west.
• Active weather is expected to continue with off and on chances of showers and thunderstorms present clear into next weekend.

Present satellite this morning continues see a majority of the Panhandles socked in with low cloud decks and a few stations evening reporting some light mist and fog. This activity should slowly clear out as we get into the late afternoon with skies becoming more scatter in the west and broken in the east. Unfortunately, present CAMs have high confidence of seeing similar low cloud decks and fog building right back in as head into the overnight hours with recent HREF runs giving us around 60 percent chance of seeing dense fog across the Southeastern Panhandles by Sunday morning. This potential fog and cloud cover could become crucial for the expected activity tomorrow as it can further limit the amount instability building across the Panhandles before the system arrives late Sunday night. As it stands present CAMs do see this being the case as most are only producing CAPE values around 500 to 700 J/kg max before the system begins to move in. This is actually a bit of a saving grace as CAMs have consistently seen the Panhandles in a high wind shear environment, bulk wind shear upwards of 40 kt, that would bring higher confidence in all hazards being in play. Still most CAMs have been forcing a decent line of storms to push in with this system that can easily lead the Western Panhandles seeing damaging winds with brief spins ups not fully ruled out. Moving into early morning hours of Monday, does see our storm threat transition more towards hydro as CAMs see the line break down in favor of heavy showers with embedded thunderstorms. Regardless activity will be hear to stay for Monday as most models do see a secondary system follow Monday afternoon that will keep showers present into Tuesday morning.

As we continue into the first week of November, present model agreement does want to give us a little break from activity with a ridge building in behind the system Monday. This should allow for a bit of a drier day for Tuesday with chance of precipitation below 10 percent that afternoon. However, conditions will stay cool for the day with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to 60s for the day. Moving into Wednesday and rest of the work week does look to keep this break brief as models try to force a series of troughs and associated upper-level lows across the Panhandles. However, present deterministic model runs are still trying get the timing of these troughs with current GFS running much faster on these systems then the ECMWF. For now, present ensembles are favoring Wednesday for the first of these systems with chances of precipitation most across the Northern Panhandles at around 10 to 30 percent. After which, they call for the secondary system sometime over next weekend with present runs favoring more widespread chances. Otherwise, look for temperatures to stay on the cooler side, with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s.

As of early this afternoon, present satellite was still seeing overcast conditions holding across the Panhandles with all terminals reporting CIGs at MVFR levels. These conditions are likely to hold through the late afternoon with skies slowly becoming more scatter to broken by the 00 UTC package. By that time all terminals should return to VFR levels. However, present CAMs do expect low-cloud decks as well as chance of fog to return during the overnight with conditions at the terminals expected to drop back to MVFR to IFR levels.

TX

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OK

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