Columbia, South Carolina

Significant rainfall remains unlikely through early next week. Aviation updated for 18z issuance.

• 1. Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

Another reinforcing surface high pressure is settling into the Mid-Atlantic this evening, with drier and cooler air ushering into the area for the weekend. As this occurs, high level clouds are approaching from the west, a harbinger of a shortwave trough that is expected to slowly stretch out over the next couple of days. A modest increase in moisture is expected as the aformentioned trough pushes eastward towards the area through the weekend but few impacts are expected out of that. Guidance shows some scattered showers possible on Sunday evening and into early Monday, but otherwise, mid-level clouds and cooler temperatures are expected this weekend.

A strong trough will eject out of the Southwest CONUS Monday before occluding and then sluggishly moving across the US. Moisture return ahead of this trough should be enough to bring some decent rainfall potential for Thursday and Friday, but beyond that, predictability falls apart with large inter-run and ensemble variability. While the more recent trends favor a northerly low pressure track, one that would inhibit severe potential, there are still enough hints within both the physics ensembles and AI suite that we could have some low-end severe threat later next week. This will be predicated upon these shortwaves and occluded low interactions which are notoriously difficult to predict, hence the large run-to-run variations. Regardless, rain chances increase late next week but the last few model suites have favored a drier solution.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Broken cirrus will be the primary clouds moving through the region. In addition, winds will inhibit any fog or visibility issues as well as dry conditions, so vfr will prevail through the period.

Wind gusts up to 20 mph have been noted and should calm a bit around sunset with light winds around 5 knots prevailing overnight. Low confidence whether LLWS will be present again tonight as most guidance points towards a lower risk, so not placed in TAFs at this time. Through the daytime, surface winds between 6-10 knots, with gusts upwards of 15 knots should occur across the forecast area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions.

SC

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GA

None.