Melbourne, Florida

New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE

• Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure Coast.
• There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a flooded road.
• Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend.

Current-Tonight... High pressure building over the eastern U.S. has continued a persistent pattern of gusty easterly winds and rounds of isolated to widely scattered onshore moving showers. Despite cloudy conditions, temperatures have climbed a few degrees above normal, mostly in the low to mid 80s, and added humidity has produced peak heat index values in the upper 80s and low 90s. Looking toward the evening, expect mild temperatures in the mid 70s alongside a few quick passing showers for any Halloween plans. Wind gusts up to 20 mph will be possible at times, particularly near the coast.

Building seas and rough surf are expected at local beaches this afternoon and evening. A High Surf Advisory takes effect at 5PM as large breaking waves increase to 5-7 ft through the overnight period. A high risk of rip currents continues.

Sunday-Monday... Increasing moisture coupled with a passing disturbance aloft will drive a wet, unsettled period. Continued, breezy onshore flow should favor scattered onshore-moving showers early Sunday. Coverage of scattered to numerous showers and an occasional storm builds through the afternoon and evening as pulses of shortwave energy begin to pass aloft. Moderate to high rain chances then continue through the night Sunday and into Monday. Continuing to monitor a heavy rainfall threat through this period as high-res ensemble means begin to show localized accumulations of 3-5 inches and 90th percentile values exceeding 5-7+ inches. A Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall exists along the coast each day, extending through portions of the interior, including the Orlando Metro on Monday.

In addition to wet conditions, a number of coastal hazards will remain present at area beaches. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues alongside large breaking waves and rough surf. Entering the water is not advised! While coastal flooding concerns continue to slowly ease, model guidance at Lake Worth Pier continue to run near Moderate Flood Stage during the afternoon high tide cycle, and a Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through at least Sunday afternoon.

Cloudy conditions and increased rain chances will keep afternoon temperatures slightly below seasonal values, ranging the upper 70s and low 80s. Sunday morning temperatures remain mild in the low to mid 70s, warmest along the coast. A few degrees cooler Monday morning, mostly in the low 70s.

Tuesday-Friday... A cold front tracks across the central U.S. into mid week, finally pushing a persistent area of high pressure offshore the eastern U.S. How the synoptic pattern then evolves becomes more uncertain as major deterministic models begin to diverge. Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but deep moisture should generally persist through at least Tuesday, continuing moderate rain chances. Reductions in rain chances are forecast into the following days as a drier air mass advects across the local area. High temperatures mostly in the mid 80s fall to mostly range the low 80s by the end of the work week.

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As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday.

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all legs of the local Atlantic waters. ENE winds 15-25 kts last through Sunday. Seas build to 6-9 ft into Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7 ft as E winds taper to 15-20 kt.

A weak east coast sea breeze is enhancing onshore flow a bit this afternoon, producing winds around 15 kts gusting to around 25 kts. ISO-SCT SHRA have develop in this flow, producing brief MVFR CIGS and IFR VIS reductions. Guidance is indicating a loosely organized and persistent band of SHRA may develop across portions of ECFL from later this afternoon into the overnight. Keeping with VC mention at most TAFs, but have continued or added TEMPOs/PROB30s at KTIX- KSUA with some timing adjustment due to chances for more frequent/prolonged impacts. Winds ease to 8-13 kts overnight, closer to the higher end with continued gusts to around 20 kts along the coast, then pick back up again after 14Z Sunday. ISO-SCT SHRA forecast to continue into Sunday morning, the SHRA become SCT-NUM with ISO TSRA after 14Z.

DAB  73  80  70  79 /  10  50  60  70
MCO  72  79  70  80 /  40  70  60  60
MLB  74  80  72  80 /  60  80  70  70
VRB  75  82  72  82 /  60  70  80  70
LEE  71  80  69  81 /  30  60  50  50
SFB  72  80  70  81 /  20  50  60  60
ORL  73  80  70  80 /  30  60  60  60
FPR  75  81  72  81 /  50  70  80  80

FL

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164.

AM

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575.