Little Rock, Arkansas

New AVIATION

• Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this weekend as several upper level impulses move through.
• Rain amounts are not expected to be excessive this weekends.
• A much stronger system is set to arrive Tuesday through early Wednesday showers and thunderstorms likely.
• The chances of severe weather appear minimal low at this time with the system next week but can not be ruled out entirely.

No appreciable changes will be made to the current forecast package with pattern continuing to feature a somewhat amplified upper flow. Guidance continues to show broad ridging over the majority of the nation with upper troughing / upper low now making its way on shore over the Pacific Northwest. This feature will become a major player in in the forecast early next week.

Satellite imagery continues to show a significant increase in moisture as southwest flow increases. Guidance remains steadfast in moving a couple of weak upper level impulses moving through and bring at least some showers and isolated thunderstorms to the state.

The first impulse is slated to move across tonight and early Saturday with the second one right on its heels keeping precip chances in the forecast through the weekend. The weekend will not be a complete washout by any stretch with QPF in the quarter to half inch range.

Weak ridging returns for Sunday night and Monday although a stray shower can not be ruled out. Attention will then turn to the previously mentioned west coast trough/upper low that will have moved from its current position and into the northern and central plains by the end of Monday.

Moisture levels will be increasing substantially as the parent low moves into the upper midwest Monday night into Tuesday. The surface cold front will be located over far east Oklahoma early Tuesday with a secondary area of low pressure developing along the boundary over far SW MO/far NW AR.

Long range models are in decent enough agreement with bringing the cold front through the FA Tuesday and Tuesday night with upper support keeping precipitation chances in the forecast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Rain will likely be in the region for election day but flooding is not a major concern with the speed of the system and antecedent conditions but several inches of rain can not be ruled out in spots and would actually be welcomed.

Severe weather at this time does not appear widespread with upper flow largely parallel to the system and stability looking limited. Still, a wary eye will remain on this system as it evolves over the next few days.

Mostly MVFR/VFR conditions are expected early in the period with worsening conditions through the afternoon and overnight hours. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected late tonight into the overnight hours with low CIGs and limited VIS.

Batesville AR     57  73  58  74 /  70  50  10  10
Camden AR         57  79  59  79 /  50  20   0   0
Harrison AR       56  72  59  71 /  40  20   0  10
Hot Springs AR    57  77  60  75 /  50  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  60  76  61  76 /  60  30   0  10
Monticello AR     61  76  61  78 /  60  60   0   0
Mount Ida AR      54  77  57  76 /  60  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  57  71  59  70 /  70  30  10  10
Newport AR        60  72  59  74 /  60  50  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     58  76  59  77 /  60  40   0   0
Russellville AR   56  76  59  75 /  60  30   0  10
Searcy AR         58  74  58  75 /  60  40  10  10
Stuttgart AR      61  75  61  76 /  60  50   0   0

None.