Grand Rapids, Michigan

• Slight chance for rain Tonight and Tomorrow
• Warm and wet weather ahead
• Chances for rain midweek onward

• Slight chance for rain Tonight and Tomorrow

Current radar has light precipitation streaming through lower Michigan this afternoon. Most of if is bifurcating the region, with a band of scattered showers moving north of the I 96 corridor and a band moving along and south of the I 94 corridor. As most of the region is dry, it will take a bit to moisten up the lower levels for any rain to accumulate. Any precipitation will be falling from a cloud deck around 5 to 10KFT. Soundings show fairly dry air above and below, so any rain falling will have to saturate the lower levels. All this is to say, with a lack of moisture, and while there is scattered showers possible, any rain that does fall will be light at best through the early evening. More moisture will advect in tonight, mainly after 10 PM, however while there is an increase, it remains sparse and all in told, total QPF will struggle to be measurable in most locations.

A weak, divergent trough will be squeezing its way through the upper level ridge through tomorrow. and while there is some mid level moisture which will result in some clouds, the divergent pattern and dry lower levels will keep most, if not all, precipitation at bay.

• Warm and wet weather ahead

As stated in previous discussions, the pattern is changing. A deep upper trough will trek across the CONUS early week, making its way into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. A warm conveyor belt will bring moisture up from the Gulf out ahead of this system, and as it moves into the Great Lakes the models continue to have it become more positively tilted which indicates a more progressive, fast moving, nature. Latest NAEFS ensembles have PWATS upwards of 1.25 inches which is highly anomalous for this time of year. CAPEs remain fairly low so thunder is not expected. However, give the fast, moist nature of this system, a period of heavy rainfall are not out of the question. With that said, there is a concern for leaf clogged storm drains Tuesday into Wednesday morning. While it is fairly far out, there is the potential of 0.5 to 1.0 of rainfall in a short period of time.

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s through midweek. While temperatures should drop into the low 60s through the latter half of the week, overall temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

• Chances for rain midweek onward

Beyond the above mentioned system, the models diverge on a consensus beyond midweek. However, there is a signal for successive waves which could allow for periods of showers to be possible, currently only a 20 to 30 percent chance.

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Mid clouds are currently in place, and will remain so through the majority of the period. We will see a batch of a few scattered showers move through the terminals from around now at KAZO, and then the remainder of the terminals by 22z. This is likely to lower ceilings slightly to around 6k ft, but staying VFR. The lack of low level moisture will limit the amount of rain that reaches the ground.

After the few rain showers pass through by about 06-07z, we will go back to just mid clouds, and light winds from the SE through 18z Sunday.

Winds will shift to the south with conditions below SCY through most of Monday.

MI

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MARINE

None.