Paducah, Kentucky

• Rain will move in tonight, with best chances (50-90%) between 9pm tonight and midday Sunday. The northern half of the region will see 0.10" or less, while the southern half will see 0.33-50" with higher amounts possible along the southern border.
• Another round of widespread rainfall will arrive Tuesday, then linger through at least Wednesday evening. Forecast rainfall totals are in the 1-2" range, with the heaviest across west Kentucky.
• Temperatures will remain near or above normal through the next week.

An initial upper-level disturbance has spread lots of mid clouds across the region today, and has tried to produce some light showers or sprinkles, especially over southeast Missouri. Guidance has some 20+% PoPs, so threw in a slight chance of measurable showers with some sprinkles surrounding it this afternoon. The light shower chances will spread from the Mississippi River northeast through the Tri State through the afternoon.

A more substantial disturbance will bring scattered to numerous showers to the region later this evening through much of Sunday. Instability will mostly remain well to the south of the region, but a stray rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out along the southern border of the region overnight, especially near the Bootheel. Ensembles indicate that the precipitable water values remain near 200% of normal, so there certainly is enough moisture to be of concern for heavy rainfall and flooding. However, the forcing will not be strong enough or persist long enough to support a serious concern this weekend.

As for timing, it appears that the initial surge of showers northward into the area will occur in the 0-3Z time frame, mainly over southeast Missouri and the Purchase Area of Kentucky. The main rain event throughout the region is expected from 03Z-18Z Sunday. Forecast rainfall amounts will range from around 0.66" in the far south to near zero north of I-64. Showers may linger through Sunday afternoon near the eastern border of the region. Some isolated light showers will then linger through Sunday night, mainly over west Kentucky.

High pressure aloft should keep the area dry Monday into early Tuesday, as our next storm system organizes over the Plains. Forecast winds on Tuesday have trended downward and are not expected to push Advisory criteria (40mph).

Guidance is in reasonable agreement in a north/south oriented band of showers ahead of a cold front moving slowly eastward across Quad State Tuesday afternoon through at least midday Wednesday. Instability will once again be limited with the upper system well north of the region, but the NBM does have a mention of thunder for much of this period. Precipitable water values remain around 200% of normal, so with the slow eastward motion of the band, some heavy rainfall and isolated flooding issues may develop. The current forecast rainfall ranges from around 2" in the southeast to around 1" in the northwest. The 12Z ensembles only have 20-40% chance of reaching just 1" of rainfall, so the current forecast is well to the high side of the latest guidance.

The front should pass at some point Wednesday and that will push the low-level moisture east of the Quad State. While the upper-levels will remain active with plenty of energy streaming by, the NBM has rain chances gradually tapering off by Friday. Based on the latest guidance, the forecast may be dry by Thursday.

Deteriorating conditions in rain are expected to spread northeast over much of the region beginning this evening. At the southern sites, MVFR conditions are expected to arrive 03Z-06Z, while farther north they may hold off until nearly 12Z, and KEVV may remain VFR. IFR conditions are ultimately expected across the south by morning, and possibly KMVN by the end of the period. LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out at KPAH and KCGI.

IL

None.

MO

None.

IN

None.

KY

None.