Duluth, Minnesota

• Scattered showers may lead to a brief shower or two for Trick or Treaters, but temperatures this evening will remain mild in the 40s and 50s.
• Widespread rainfall is expected early next week. Most are likely (80%) an inch of rain or more, but higher amounts remain uncertain.
• The Northland will see a drier pattern with cooler temperatures at the end of the week.

Scattered showers are currently moving north throughout the Northland, though they are still fighting some dry air. Scattered showers will continue into this evening and tonight as Trick or Treaters head out. While there may be a shower here and there, Trick or Treaters will not have to worry about freezing temperatures, as warm air advection will keep temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s with lower 40s near Lake Superior. Overall rainfall amounts for the rest of the day and overnight will stay light at a tenth of an inch or less, though patchy fog will likely develop across the area late tonight where rain falls. Fog is most likely to form where rain falls throughout the day today.

On Sunday, any lingering morning drizzle and patchy fog will burn off as a warm front lifts north into Ontario. A brief period of partial clearing will allow mild air to spread over our region, sending afternoon highs into the lower to middle 60s for many inland locations. Skies will turn mostly cloudy again late Sunday night as the next storm system gathers over the Plains.

Widespread rain showers are still expected Monday into Tuesday. A strong plume of moisture from the Gulf and an atmospheric river will bring a soaking rainfall across the area, as precipitable water values are near the climatological maximum for this time of year across the Northland. Quick changes in pressure ahead of the system will lead to windy conditions with the rain, leading to winds of 20-30 mph Monday daytime. Isolated embedded storms are possible Tuesday as instability is added to the mix. Severe weather is not anticipated, but also cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Showers will remain likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper low dropping out of the Canadian Prairies interacts with the system over the Upper Midwest. Rain will gradually taper off from west to east through Wednesday afternoon as the center of low pressure slowly departs into the Great Lakes, leaving damp and cloudy conditions across the region. Most of the area has at least an 80% chance for an inch or more of rain. However, chances for 2 inches or higher have decreased slightly, and expected totals have decreased slightly as well. These probabilities will be monitored of how they adjust as the event nears.

High pressure will build into the Northland for Thursday and Friday, bringing an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions will prevail for the end of the week, though mostly cloudy skies will linger. Cooler air filtering in behind the departing system will return temperatures to seasonal norms, with highs retreating into the 40s and overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

MVFR ceilings continue their trek north across the Iron Range. HIB and INL ceilings are expected to lower throughout the afternoon. Scattered showers continue throughout the area as well, but are leading little reductions in visibility or ceilings due to fighting the dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. A few more rounds of showers are possible later this evening, and those that do receive precipitation will likely see fog overnight as well, with IFR conditions lasting into the morning. Southeast winds will transition to the south overnight, and will remain less than 15 kts.

Favorable marine conditions will persist across Western Lake Superior through Sunday night with waves 1 foot or less and winds generally under 10 knots, though patchy fog may reduce visibility overnight. Winds will increase early next week as a large area of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest. Breezy northeasterly winds gusting to around 25 knots on Monday afternoon through Tuesday will build waves, likely requiring Small Craft Advisories near the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

Fire weather concerns remain very low through the forecast period. Southeast winds around 5 to 10 mph will shift to the south tonight into Sunday morning along with increasing humidity and light rain. Brisk southeast winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph will develop Monday, but widespread rain of 1 inch or greater Monday through Wednesday will keep humidity high and suppress fire potential. A cooler and drier pattern will follow late in the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

MN

None.

WI

None.

MARINE

None.