Gaylord, Michigan

• Few showers tonight, mild Sunday.
• Milder still early to mid next week with increasing rain chances.

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast

On the leading edge of brief height rises tonight, warm advection and modest moisture transport will support some showers. Generally of the light variety, with accums <0.10" most if not all locations. Heading into Sunday, short wave within the upper flow generally passes through and to the south of northern MI, with little in the way of moisture to work with during the day. Temps rise a few degrees on Sunday in response to the southwest flow as sfc high pressure centers around NJ with low pressure system taking shape across the Intermountain West.

Early next week, the trough associated with the recent floods across the Southwest will continue to move eastward with time, with a fast moving upper low and associated jet stream ejecting on the eastern side of the trough. This feature will move up into the N/C Plains and Upper Midwest. This lead piece of energy will induce a sfc low pressure system tracking into the Plains and eventually Midwest/Upper Midwest regions. Consequently, anomalous column moisture will advect into northern MI during that Monday through Wednesday time frame, with the potential for wetting rains. Current trough, sfc low, and moisture trajectory point towards the healthiest rains across Upper Michigan with the lead warm and moist advection later Monday and Monday night, which would include the eastern UP. Potential exists for a break in the action before another round wetting rains possible along the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday-ish. The timing and details of this will change some with time. Taking a look at the Total QPF 50th percentile from all the major ensembles (GEPS, GEFS, and EPS, thrown in the GEFS AI and AIFS as well) suggests the potential for ~0.25 to 0.75" across northern lower, and ~0.50 to 1.0" for eastern upper. This will be dependent on how the upper level features and subsequent sfc features interact and ultimately migrate. Temperatures prior to the eventual cold frontal passage will be in the 60s most areas, likely into Wednesday.

Energy in some capacity tries to migrate/linger across the Ohio Valley/MS Valley late week, although varying within each deterministic model solution. Thus, showery activity may linger late week as hinted by ensembles. The messiness of the upper level features makes this portion of the forecast quite fuzzy and low confidence, but at least some showers may remain late week. Looks slightly cooler as well, but still above normal for the first week of November.

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a low VFR CIG deck tonight, along with a few -SHRA. Could scrape MVFR CIGs at CIU Sunday morning for a brief period. Light south to southwest winds through the rest of this afternoon will decrease tonight, becoming southwest on Sunday and generally light again. Dry conditions are expected through much of the day on Sunday and CIGs generally rising to BKN060-100.

MI

None.

MARINE

None.