Offices

Area Forecast Discussion · MRX

Morristown/Knoxville, Tennessee

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Commerce Boulevard, Morristown, TN 37814, United States of America

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Product header AFDMRX·FXUS64 KMRX 311829
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Morristown TN
AWIPS ID
AFDMRX
WMO heading
FXUS64 KMRX 311829
Sequence
587

New DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 226 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

  • Dry and pleasant conditions for outside activities this evening.
  • A 40-60 percent chance of light rain across southeast Tennessee and Plateau beginning late tonight through Sunday night. However, most areas remain dry.
  • Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.
  • Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Currently, ridging surface and aloft are producing another dry and mild day across the region. Plenty of high level cloudiness. Overall, nice conditions for outside activities this evening.

For late Tonight through Sunday night, a short-wave will move across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Pressure falls associated with this wave will increase the low-level jet over middle Tennessee into the Plateau inducing isentropic lift. Strongest lift will be across the Plateu counties and southeast Tennessee. Since moisture return will be greatest over these areas, best coverage of showers will be west of interstate 75. For areas east of interstate 75, weaker isentropic lift and continued dry boundary layer will only allow for areas of sprinkles or dry conditions.

A weak mountain wave event will occur across the mountains and foothills for tonight and Sunday but sustained wind speed and gusts will remain below advisory criteria.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper and surface ridging will produce dry and unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

For Tuesday night through Friday, a stronger upper trough will move into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Ensemble cluster analysis do show a good deal of variance regarding the strength and timing of this system. Main impacts will be much needed rainfall for much of the area along with the potential of mountain wave downslope winds into the mountains and foothills. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal.

This system exits the area by next weekend with drier conditions.

AVIATION

18Z TAFS · Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Main concern is potential MVFR conditions Sunday due to coverage of showers reducing visibility to 4-5 miles, mainly for CHA. For TYS, sprinkles are possible.

Otherwise, VFR conditions. Surface ridging will keep winds mainly less than 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  64  54  72 /  30  60  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  67  53  73 /  10  30  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  65  51  72 /   0  40  30   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  68  50  72 /   0  10  10   0

MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC

NONE.

TN

NONE.

VA

NONE.

DISCUSSION...DHAVIATION...DH

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Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

Set in these faces, each under the SIL Open Font License 1.1:

  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

Icons from Heroicons and, for the weather, Phosphor Icons, both under the MIT License.