Offices

Area Forecast Discussion · ILN

Cincinnati/Wilmington, Ohio

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1901 South State Route 134, Wilmington, OH 45177, United States of America

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Product header AFDILN·FXUS61 KILN 311724
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
AWIPS ID
AFDILN
WMO heading
FXUS61 KILN 311724
Sequence
175

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak mid level disturbance will bring some light rain to the region Sunday and early Monday. A stronger system will result in more widespread precipitation for the middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface high pressure will move east tonight ahead of a weak mid level s/w. This s/w will be undercutting a l/w ridge, which will hamper any deeper development of s/w and associated vorticity. Light and scattered rainfall with this system will end early Monday morning as the mean s/w axis exits to the easts during this time. The l/w ridge builds back in Mon night and early Tues, then gets shunted ewd during the day. This will allow swly flow over the Ohio Valley to take hold ahead of a potent l/w trough.

This l/w trough and/or cutoff low is all over the map for Tues night onward, leading to very low confidence in forecast going forward. Even though confidence is low on mass fields, they all support rain on Wed with deep sw flow being wrung out over the region. A continued chance of rain through the end of the week is also prudent given the divergence of upper level mass fields. While some chance of rain is expected through the period, it won`t be any washout or extended rainfall event after the more widespread rain expected Wednesday.

AVIATION

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A weak upper level disturbance will approach from the west tonight and early Sunday. As it does, mid and high level clouds will thicken and lower with VFR conditions will prevailing.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Mon and Wednesday. MVFR vsbys possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH

None.

KY

None.

IN

None.

DISCUSSION...FranksAVIATION...Franks

Help & About

Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

Offices issue one at least twice a day, early morning and afternoon, and update it as things change. It's written in sections, usually a synopsis, the near and long term, and the outlook for pilots, mariners and fire weather, ending with any watches, warnings and advisories in effect. Forecasters write in a shorthand of their own; the NWS glossary explains most of it.

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  • A discussion's product header has the details of its bulletin, and a badge marks one the office has sent again with corrections.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

Set in these faces, each under the SIL Open Font License 1.1:

  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

Icons from Heroicons and, for the weather, Phosphor Icons, both under the MIT License.