Charleston, South Carolina

Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs.

• 1) Continued risk for rip currents this weekend.
• 2) Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued risk for rip currents this weekend.

Gusty northeast winds and building seas expected along all beaches of GA and SC today. A High Risk of rip currents will remain until 8 PM this evening.

Reminder: The local rip current program will end later today, October 31 with the afternoon Surf Zone Forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday.

Through Tonight: Aloft, h500 heights will continue to fall as shortwaves move through the flow into the overnight period. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will continue to shift into the northeast, with a coastal trough just offshore. The resulting increased surface pressure gradient is creating the gusty to breezy conditions that are being observed across the region, though they are coming in a touch weaker than expected. Strongest winds are expected along the coast in the 20 to 25 mph range, possibly up to 30 mph in McIntosh county, with gusts up to 20 mph for inland areas. In addition, the coastal trough will continue the low chances (20-40%) for light showers into the early evening hours primarily for McIntosh county, with the rest of the region expected to remain dry. Overnight, we`ll likely see another push of light showers moving ashore onto southeast Georgia, though there remains uncertainty on just how far inland the showers are able to get before dissipating. Either way, any precipitation amounts will remain light, with totals by sunrise Sunday expected to remain under a quarter of an inch.

Extended: High pressure will remain the primary feature across the region through early next week. The high will be centered near the Mid Atlantic and southern New England Sunday into Monday before drifting eastward over the Atlantic Tuesday into the middle of the week. A coastal trough is expected to develop just off the GA/SC coast and provide sufficient convergence to generate showers. This shower activity will likely favor the GA coast Sunday into Monday. The shower potential will then gradually spread to the entire coast Tuesday into Wednesday as the parent high slips to the east and allows the trough to attempt to push onshore. Any rainfall that does occur shouldn`t be particularly impactful, with most places likely only seeing a few hundredths of an inch.

The gradient will remain sufficiently tight to drive elevated northeast flow Sunday through Tuesday. Gusts into the 20-25 mph range are expected, especially along the coast each afternoon and evening.

18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected across the CHS/JZI/SAV terminals, with gusty to breezy northeasterly winds continuing throughout the day. Gusts to near 20 knots are expected for inland areas, closer to 25 to 30 knots at the immediate coastline. There is potential for MVFR cigs down near Darien, GA (McIntosh County) as light scattered showers move onshore, which may continue into the overnight hours. Winds decrease overnight, though a few gusts into the upper teens will remain possible.

Extended aviation: Breezy northeast winds will continue late Sunday through Monday. Rain chances will increase Sunday into early next week which could bring the potential for periodic flight restrictions.

Through Tonight: Behind the front that pushed through earlier, breezy northeasterly winds have been moved in producing gusts of 25 to 30 knots across the local waters. 6 ft seas are currently limited to the offshore (20-60nm) zones, with 6 to 7 ft seas expected to push into the nearshore zones this evening and overnight. Offshore, wave heights are expected to reach into the 7 to 8 ft range.

Sunday through Thursday: The overall setup will continue to feature high pressure centered off to the north with a pinched gradient across the local waters. This will drive continued northeast flow through the remainder of the weekend and early next week. Frequent gusts into the 25-30 knot range are expected into Monday, along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. These conditions will support an extended period of Small Craft Advisories. Winds should gradually diminish Tuesday into Wednesday as the gradient relaxes. However, seas will remain elevated enough to keep the advisories going through Tuesday night. By Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will diminish even more as a cold front approaches from the west.

GA

High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217-219-239-241.

SC

High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148>151.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362-364.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ384.