Birmingham, Alabama

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION

• Halloween evening: Some may see raindrops while others stay dry. Keep your enchanted rain cloaks and umbrellas on standby just in case a passing shower tries to dampen your spirits!
• Midweek rain: Another weather system will move into the area around the middle of next week, bringing increased chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

This weekend: With further vertical moistening and the presence of a few shortwave trough axes, precipitation chances are favored to gradually increase. Spotty activity is forecast during trick-or-treat, leading up to a wetter overnight into Sunday. A majority of this activity will be in the form of showers due to low-level stability; however, a couple rumbles of thunder may occur given instances of weak MU-CAPE. Recent runs of various models and the 12z ensemble show the potential for pockets of moderate to heavy rain northwest of the 59/20 Sunday morning, associated with a mid-level lobe of energy.

Next week: Much of the upcoming workweek will feature increased cloudiness as additional plumes of moisture aloft come our way from the west. Monday and Tuesday look to be free from rain as a shortwave ridge moves across the Gulf region. Our next system currently exists as a pair of troughs and jet streaks just off the west coast of the U.S. and Mexico. Models have been consistent in showing these troughs interacting/phasing as they track from the Desert Southwest to the Plains and arrive to our area on Wednesday, though there`s variability in the configuration and intensity of the system by that point. At this time, the various model solutions, along with ML/AI guidance, don`t seem to point toward a robust severe thunderstorm threat given a few sizable limiting factors; however, given background shear and some instability, a low severe thunderstorm risk may materialize. Heavy rain may also occur with this system for parts of the region. We`ll narrow down each as we get closer.

89^GSatterwhite

A VFR, multi-layered cloud deck is present across central Alabama. While spotty showers will be around afternoon into evening, the brunt of activity is forecast later tonight into Sunday and is likely to affect several terminals as ceilings lower to MVFR. Easterly winds will gust between 15-20 knots at times.

89^GSatterwhite

MinRHs remain well above critical thresholds over the coming days. Rainy weather is forecast to occur tonight into Sunday and again on Wednesday. Easterly winds will gust near 20 mph this weekend, becoming southeasterly on Monday with similar gusts.

Gadsden     52  66  52  74 /  60  70  30  10
Anniston    55  67  54  74 /  40  50  30   0
Birmingham  57  67  56  74 /  60  80  30  10
Tuscaloosa  58  70  58  76 /  60  80  30  10
Calera      58  68  57  74 /  50  80  30  10
Auburn      60  69  57  75 /  20  50  30   0
Montgomery  62  73  60  77 /  30  60  30   0
Troy        62  72  59  77 /  20  50  30   0

None.