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Area Forecast Discussion · TAE

Tallahassee, Florida

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4 Th St, Quincy, FL, United States of America

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Product header AFDTAE·FXUS62 KTAE 311921
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
AWIPS ID
AFDTAE
WMO heading
FXUS62 KTAE 311921
Sequence
057

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

  • Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday.
  • Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM

This Evening through Sunday · Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Cloudy skies through Sunday morning with increasing chances for showers and possible rumbles of thunder. A shortwave trough with a surface Gulf low will be hugging the coast Sunday morning bringing rain chances to the region. Most of the heavier rain is expected to remain offshore, with light to moderate showers for our inland regions. Instability may be increased enough along the coast for a few rumbles of thunder during the day; however, no severe weather is expected. PoPs range from 20-40% in our Georgia counties. Elsewhere, rain chances are about 50-60% Sunday. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 70s with the rain and cloud cover. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 60s. As the Gulf low passes on Sunday, easterly winds will be gusting around 25 mph.

LONG TERM

Sunday night through next Friday · Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The Gulf low will translate east through the night and exit our waters during the day on Monday. Rain chances will decrease through the day, and drier air will begin filtering in from the west. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms begins midweek as a large upper level trough enters the eastern CONUS. Rain chances will stick around through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures for the long term will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the 60s. Both of which remain above seasonable norms.

AVIATION

18Z TAFS · Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today with MVFR to IFR conditions and rain showers moving in late tonight and tomorrow. There is a small chance for thunderstorms, mainly at KDHN, KTLH, and KECP but it is too small to include in the taf for now. Breezy ENE to E winds are expected to continue through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through the rest of the weekend, as the Gulf low traverses east and over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend that could produce about 0.5 inches of rainfall along the coast with isolated higher amounts up to an inch. Another round of showers/thunderstorms is expected to approach the region by midweek. There are no flooding concerns at this time.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Tallahassee   68  77  65  81 /  20  40  20  10
Panama City   68  76  65  80 /  50  60  20  10
Dothan        64  73  62  79 /  30  40  20   0
Albany        64  74  61  79 /  10  30  30   0
Valdosta      66  77  64  81 /  10  30  30  10
Cross City    69  79  66  82 /  30  40  30  30
Apalachicola  69  75  67  78 /  40  50  30  20

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL

High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.

GA

None.

AL

None.

GM

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-755.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ752-770-772-775.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ765.

SHORT TERM...MontgomeryLONG TERM....MontgomeryAVIATION...MerrifieldMARINE...MontgomeryFIRE WEATHER...MontgomeryHYDROLOGY...Montgomery

Help & About

Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

Offices issue one at least twice a day, early morning and afternoon, and update it as things change. It's written in sections, usually a synopsis, the near and long term, and the outlook for pilots, mariners and fire weather, ending with any watches, warnings and advisories in effect. Forecasters write in a shorthand of their own; the NWS glossary explains most of it.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

Set in these faces, each under the SIL Open Font License 1.1:

  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

Icons from Heroicons and, for the weather, Phosphor Icons, both under the MIT License.