Shreveport, Louisiana

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

• Areas of light rainfall will continue pushing northeast across the ArkLaTex, tapering off overnight tonight from west to east, with dry and warmer conditions Sunday and Monday.
• Rain will return late Monday, continuing through the day Tuesday. Periods of heavy rainfall may result in flash flooding development. A few rumbles of thunder are possible.
• Behind the cold front, more seasonable temperatures will prevail through the end of the work week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s.

Scattered showers continue to trek from southwest to northeast across the ArkLaTex this afternoon. Rain rates have been light to moderate with limited accumulations of up to a few tenths of an inch so far. As the grey, cloudy daytime fades to twilight on this All Hallows Eve, this primary impulse of moisture is expected to be in the process of departing to the northeast. As of this writing, there is only isolated additional convection to our southwest preparing to move into the region. However, the latest HRRR and NAM 3km both keep conditions fairly rainy into the evening, which seems to be a result of struggling to capture the timing of today`s moisture. That being said, enough signals point to a push of additional showers across our south and east into the evening to carry Chc PoPs overnight for our easternmost zones. This trend looks reasonably favorable for our trick-or-treaters to have the opportunity to get outside this evening, though being prepared with an umbrella and ready to dodge showers and drizzle would still be advisable.

The bulk of today`s rainfall will have exited the region overnight, though a few lingering showers are possible Sunday morning across our easternmost zones. As we turn back the clocks, temperatures will drop into the middle 50s north to lower 60s south, quickly rebounding into the lower 80s Sunday afternoon amidst drier conditions and clearing skies under upper level ridging extending from Texas over the Ouachitas and Ozarks before sweeping eastward into Monday as our next weathermaker approaches.

The next chance of rain for the ArkLaTex looks on track to begin Monday evening overnight into Tuesday. The longwave trough pushing onshore this afternoon will advance eastwards over the next tow days, deepening as it does so, with an axis extending from the Canadian border down the Front Range to New Mexico. By Monday evening, the leading edge of the trough will be pushing across central Oklahoma and north Texas, where the best chance for severe development exists, along the I-35 corridor. As has lately been the story, confidence in storms remaining strong to severe eastward into the ArkLaTex is not there at this time.

However, trends do look favorable for periods of heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding Monday night and through the day Tuesday. While much-needed relief from the current drought would be welcome, our prolonged dry conditions have resulted in very dry soils which will struggle to absorb rainfall at first, increasing the degree of initial runoff. Small streams and areas of poor drainage may be vulnerable, with urban flash flooding also a possibility.

Tuesday`s showers and storms will taper off overnight into Wednesday morning. Long range synoptic scale guidance suggests a secondary low will eject east across the Plains Thursday, which may kick up a few additional showers, but PoPs remain low at this point. Otherwise, dry conditions look to prevail through the end of the week ahead. Behind the cold front, temperatures look to return to near-seasonable values, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s through the end of this extended forecast period.

/26/

SHRA is beginning to thin for much of East TX by the beginning of this period. Cigs may lift a bit through the afternoon but expect some level of cloud cover through the period. VCSH are still around other sites at this hour and could continue into this evening. Site cigs are largely improving from this morning`s minimums but lingering rainfall will continue to bring visibility issues. The returned moisture will work to bring low cigs back for most sites overnight and into tomorrow morning, which look slow to lift as we round out the period. Winds should stay light and generally easterly for everyone. /57/

Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /26/

SHV  64  81  65  81 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  63  79  64  81 /  50  20   0   0
DEQ  61  79  62  81 /  40  10   0  10
TXK  61  79  63  80 /  40  10   0   0
ELD  61  79  62  80 /  50  20   0   0
TYR  63  82  66  84 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  62  82  64  83 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  64  83  65  84 /  10  10   0   0

AR

None.

LA

None.

OK

None.

TX

None.