Blacksburg/Roanoke, Virginia

Forecast and Aviation Discussion updated.

1) Complicated forecast for next week may lead to decreasing rainfall chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1: Complicated forecast for next week may lead to decreasing rainfall chances.

Overall, a quiet period is forecast through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week as high pressure sets up and remains in influence over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through at least Wednesday. While a disheveled shortwave is expected to move through the region late Sunday into Monday, much of the region will continue to remain dry thanks to the aforementioned surface high pressure system advecting dry air into the region ahead of this upper level shortwave trough. Nevertheless, some light showers can`t be ruled out in extreme SW Virginia and portions of SE West Virginia in upslope locations late Sunday into Monday morning. The area looks to completely dry out once again on Tuesday and most of Wednesday across the region as high pressure slides east off the Mid-Atlantic states coastline.

By late Wednesday, the aforementioned disheveled shortwave trough looks to potentially develop a subtropical low off the coast of Florida in a very moist environment. The placement and timing of this low is quite variable at this time. At the same time, much more amplified upper level troughs are expected to slide east into the central Conus. Forecast models had been consistent in deepening an upper level trough and digging it south into the northern Gulf states mid to late week; however, guidance no longer digs this trough as far south, which looks to really limit the amount of moisture that was expected to be pulled north into the region. Along with this change in upper level dynamics, the aforementioned low off the Florida coastline looks to possibly prevent moisture from being pulled north as well ahead of a cold front associated with the upper low across the central Conus. This is due to the Florida low likely wrapping dry air from the northwest over our region southward into the western Atlantic. This is evident on forecast total PW values from both the ECMWF and GFS during this timeframe.

Regardless, it does look like the region will see some precipitation and unsettled weather; however, the amount of precipitation in question might just be much less than was initially forecast earlier in the week. Overall, there is still time for this forecast to change as it is still in the 5-7 day timeframe, and with this many chess pieces on the board, there is certainly going to be more changes ahead of Thursday through Saturday of next week.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. While an overcast upper level cloud deck is expected to remain over the region through the TAF period, this cloud deck is expected to be at or above 10,000 feet for all terminals. This will also prevent any overnight river valley fog from developing at sites like LWB. Winds through the remainder of today will remain out of the northeast across the Piedmont, and east for mountain terminals at around 5 to 10 knots. Winds look to go variable to calm during the overnight hours, but then should resume the aforementioned directions and speeds mentioned above.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

VFR conditions will likely continue into early next week with quiet weather and continual cloudy skies. A frontal system looks to approach around the middle of next week and offer some gusty winds and a chance of rain. There is still a lot of uncertainty on the timing of this system but it`s possible a warm front will increase southeasterly winds along the Appalachian Mountains. A cold front may follow through by the end of the work week and may shift the wind direction (though weaker) from the northwest. The passage of these fronts may give us a few days of shower activity and sub-VFR conditions.

VA

None.

NC

None.

WV

None.