Charleston, West Virginia

No significant changes made from the previous forecast package.

1) Much of the area should remain dry into early next week, then a system brings widespread precipitation chances by mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 1

As the area continues to relish the dry weather overall due to light wind speeds and RH values not plummeting during the afternoons, fire weather concerns are mitigated for now. High pressure is still forecast to dominate into the new work week until the next chances of rainfall come into play.

There is a subtle trough due for Monday morning which brings slight chances for rain showers across mainly the southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky areas, however this would be very limited rainfall due to all the dry air in place and high pressure. Not expecting any excessive rainfall or heavy shower activity. Anything we do get would be beneficial rainfall, but we are not expecting much in the way of a lot of activity until mid to late week.

Models are in very large disagreement on timing and placement of several disturbances and systems, therefore confidence is low on when and where the most rainfall will be and there is a lot of uncertainty at this time. If the medium rang model solutions hold true then we should see areawide chances of rainfall mid to late week and then cutting off by Saturday.

However, with the lack of confidence displayed in the medium rang models the chances are largely defined with the blend of models which has us in likely PoPs on Wednesday and going into Thursday. Then chances taper down some on Friday and we are slated to get back to dry weather by Saturday albeit a relatively short dry period as an active weather pattern takes hold.

The main them is that this could all change due to the model inconsistency, therefore the National Blend of Models is heavily weighted on this forecast for the aforementioned time range. Progressively more active weather will likely come to fruition by mid week and continue for the most part through the rest of the forecast period and beyond.

With ample cloud coverage, especially thick mid level clouds which may lower slightly by the morning, should be enough to not promote optimal radiational cooling. This along with forecast model soundings indicating elevated wind right off the surface should both keep fog formation at bay. As of now, not expecting any fog to develop, especially at sites with elevated surface wind expected for the period such as BKW/HTS/CRW/PKB. EKN will likely be decoupled, however its too dry for any saturation to occur without the proper optimal radiational cooling, therefore left mention of fog out of EKN and the rest of the sites for this period. VFR will dominate through tomorrow.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

WV

None.

OH

None.

KY

None.

VA

None.