Norman/Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM

• Fog, some potentially dense, is expected tonight into Sunday morning.
• Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon through Monday night with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes.
• Near-normal temperatures will arrive by the middle part of the week with cooler nighttime temperatures.

Scattered showers continue early this afternoon, primarily from central Oklahoma to the north and east (northern and east central Oklahoma) as a shortwave trough passes by. Rainfall amounts are quite light, with most locations only receiving a trace to a few hundredths of an inch. Even where showers aren`t as persistent, there are areas of drizzle and mist along with abundant low clouds. The coverage of showers should continue to decrease from southwest to northeast as the wave exits to the northeast. All in all, its a dreary Halloween across Oklahoma and north Texas.

Fog is expected to develop tonight into Sunday morning with light winds and a saturated boundary layer. Patchy fog is likely just about anywhere tonight with the most likely area for more widespread fog (and perhaps even locally dense) across west central/southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. Temperatures will be relatively mild for early November (low 50s to low 60s deg F) with some locations likely near or even exceeding their record warm lows.

Mahale

Abundant cloud cover is expected once again tomorrow (even after the morning fog dissipates) with broken to overcast skies for most locations. While temperatures will start relatively mild for early November, the abundant cloud cover will prevent temperatures from rising too high, with highs generally in the 70s to near 80 deg F. Southerly winds will increase with a strengthening surface pressure gradient, especially across northwest Oklahoma.

A very mild night is expected Sunday night into Monday morning with abundant cloud cover, breezy southerly winds, and increasing moisture advection. Low temperatures are expected to range from the low to mid-60s deg F, which is around normal high temperatures for early November. Many locations will likely be near or exceed their record warm low temperatures.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Monday afternoon through Monday night with a threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes as an upper-level trough approaches from the west and intersects the dryline.

A lead wave associated with the subtropical jet stream (STJ) will approach early during the day, followed by a stronger, primary wave associated with the trough in the afternoon and evening. There will likely be some showers and thunderstorms associated with the lead wave Monday morning. The coverage and duration of this morning activity could potentially impact the strengthen of the dryline and the redevelopment/intensity of storms in the late afternoon (e.g., more widespread and persistent activity early in the day may reduce the risk of severe weather later in the day for parts of the area).

As synoptic-scale ascent lifts into the Plains in the afternoon, a surface low will deepen across Nebraska with a trailing dryline located across central Kansas into western Oklahoma/western Texas that will sharpen near or just east of the 100th meridian.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Oklahoma into western north Texas along a dryline late afternoon into the early evening as the trough approaches from the west. These thunderstorms will be capable of being supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. In addition, with increasing low-level shear associated with a strengthening low-level jet, there will be some tornado risk with enlarged low-level hodographs. With strong, linear forcing, these storms may consolidate into line segments as they move northeast in the evening with the potential hazards being damaging wind gusts and embedded, QLCS tornadoes. Storms will exit southeast Oklahoma early Tuesday morning.

Mahale

As the upper low shifts east and northeast Tuesday, there will be a chance for some wrap-around showers across the north. Meanwhile, in the wake of the severe weather a cold front will sweep across the area early Tuesday with strong, gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Highs Tuesday will again be in the 60s and lower 70s. More tranquil weather is expected Wednesday as winds go light with more sunshine.

Some differences in the models as we go late in the week as Euro brings a shortwave trough out of the central Rockies into the southern Plains Thursday with some low rain chances. Meanwhile, the GFS takes that shortwave east across the Dakotas. Otherwise, cool and quiet weather expected through the end of the week.

Upper trough gradually exiting to the north & east with scattered light rain to drizzle through 22Z at our terminals near and east of the I-35 corridor. Stratus with very low ceilings expanding eastward off the Southern High Plains as most of our terminals are currently in a MVFR category. Expecting ceilings to further lower to IFR categories by 22Z and to an LIFR category well into the overnight hours. Visibilities may also reduce in fog between 10-14Z. Terminal conditions may not improve until late in the forecast period returning to a MVFR category around 16Z.

Oklahoma City OK  68  59  75  63 /  40  10  10   0
Hobart OK         68  55  76  64 /  20   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  58  80  64 /  10   0  10   0
Gage OK           65  51  71  62 /  30   0  10  40
Ponca City OK     70  58  74  61 /  60  20   0  10
Durant OK         72  61  80  63 /  60  10  10   0

OK

None.

TX

None.