Mobile/Pensacola, Alabama

New DISCUSSION, MARINE

• Rain chances increase into this evening, continuing into Sunday. Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3-4 are possible.
• A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet by Sunday, with rough surf expected. There is a small chance of minor coastal flooding tonight.
• Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week.

Through Tuesday night, an upper level shortwave trough currently moving over the Mississippi River passes over the forecast area later today through Sunday. Moisture levels have increased into the 1.4"-1.6" range at this time and are expected to rise into the 1.8"-2.0" range tonight as winds in the 900-700mb range shift to more southeasterly, bringing increasing amounts moisture inland. Surface high pressure is advertised hanging tough over the Mid-Atlantic region, limiting the best moisture return to the western half of the forecast area and points west. Model soundings show modest instability (MUCapes topping out around 1000J/kg), with mid level height falls limited with the trough. Looking at possible impacts with this first system, limited instability combines with modest wind shear (Bulk Wind Shear of 20-25kts). Helicities by themselves are rising into the 200-250 m^2/s^s range, mainly over areas north of Highway 84. The best instability is limited to southern MS and coastal Al, well separated from the better helicities. Any 850mb jet to help destabilize the lower levels of the atmosphere is indicated to be east of the forecast area. All in all, the chance of strong to severe storms is expected to be low due this mis-match placement of ingredients. With high moisture levels, there is a low possiblity of water issues, mainly Sunday and in poor drainage areas closer to the coast, and from training cells. The latest Drought Monitor shows Abnormally dry to Moderate Drought conditions north of our coastal counties, helping to temper water issues over these areas.

Later Sunday night into Wednesday, guidance is advertising another shortwave trough/closed low moving to the Mississippi River. Guidance is inconsistent with the organization with the upper dynamics inconsistent in the guidance. Some of the guidance is advertising the upper dynamics, whether trough or close low, taking a negative tilt as it moves over the Southeast. With inconsistent timing and placement of the ingredients, will have to take a will monitor attitude for now.

After this second system passes, the Southeast comes under zonal upper flow heading into the weekend, with a dry forecast indicated.

Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is maintained through the rest of the week, before decreasing to Moderate Wednesday into Thursday as east to southeast flow decreases. With the tidal range at its maximum the next 24hrs and decreasing, there is some concern of a High Surface Advisory or Coastal Flood Advisory being needed. With P-ETTS based forecast data adverting a less than 10% of the water levels approaching minor inundation levels, less of exceeding, will monitor for now. Also, surf heights on area beaches are expected to be rough, but remain below High Surf Advisory criteria. /16

Mostly VFR ceilings over the area with some occasional MVFR ceilings continuing to to move into areas along the coast this afternoon. Scattered rain showers return late tonight and into tomorrow morning bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail by early Sunday morning. Winds continue to be east-southeast today around 10 knots with some periodically higher gusts. Winds wane overnight to around 5 knots and prevail easterly by early tomorrow morning at at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots, especially closer to the coast. SS/97

A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week after the systems passage. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. /16

Mobile      67  77  65  79 /  40  60  20  10
Pensacola   69  77  67  79 /  30  60  20  10
Destin      68  77  66  79 /  50  60  20  10
Evergreen   63  74  60  78 /  30  60  20   0
Waynesboro  63  76  61  79 /  60  60  20  10
Camden      62  72  60  76 /  40  60  30   0
Crestview   65  77  62  80 /  30  70  10  10

AL

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL

High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS

None.

GM

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675.