Miami, Florida

New SHORT TERM

• Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide.
• Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast.
• Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

Model consensus remains consistent in showing a mid-lvl disturbance over the E Gulf reaching the Florida peninsula later tonight into Sunday. POPs/Wx NBM coverage has been in an upward trend during the past several iterations, with latest solutions pushing max POPs into the 70-80% range for much of SoFlo Sunday afternoon. The increasing instability and dynamic forcing ahead of the disturbance will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, starting Sunday morning. Model PWATs show 2+ inches, along with steeper lapse rates and increasing CAPE.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most of SoFlo on Sunday, which is level 1 of 4. But for the Atlantic metro areas the risk increases to slight Sunday afternoon, which is level 2 of 4. An important factor is the saturated soils across the area from all the rain of the past several days, especially the developed-concrete urban areas, where localized flooding impacts are expected. An isolated flash flooding event or two are certainly possible with the heaviest downpours, training of cells, and with slow or stationary storms.

The ongoing coaqstal hazards are expected to continue through Sunday across the Atlantic coastline. Please see the BEACH forecast section below for specific details about the coastal products in effect.

Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s, while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and mid-upper 70s elsewhere.

For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low-level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we get past this weekends heavy rain threat.

Periods of lower cloud decks and passing showers will continue to bring MVFR cigs/vis through 00Z, and likely through the overnight hours. ENE winds will generally range between 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible throughout the TAF period.

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will become numerous on Sunday, with possible periods of MVFR/IFR at all terminals.

Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend.

Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and Broward beaches.

Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be expected through much of next week.

Miami            76  82  74  82 /  70  70  80  80
West Kendall     76  84  74  83 /  60  70  70  80
Opa-Locka        75  83  74  83 /  70  80  80  80
Homestead        76  84  74  84 /  60  70  70  80
Fort Lauderdale  75  81  73  81 /  80  80  80  80
N Ft Lauderdale  75  82  74  82 /  70  80  80  80
Pembroke Pines   75  84  73  83 /  70  80  70  80
West Palm Beach  75  82  72  82 /  60  60  70  80
Boca Raton       75  81  73  81 /  70  70  80  80
Naples           73  84  71  83 /  20  80  50  60

FL

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172.

AM

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM

None.