Offices

Area Forecast Discussion · LWX

Baltimore/Washington, Virginia

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National Weather Service - Baltimore/Washington, 43858 Weather Service Road, Sterling, VA 20166, United States of America

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Product header AFDLWX·FXUS61 KLWX 311721
Title
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
AWIPS ID
AFDLWX
WMO heading
FXUS61 KLWX 311721
Sequence
586

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the forecast as dry and seasonal conditions are expected for the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES

  • 1) Seasonable temperatures and dry through Monday, then rain chances return late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Seasonable temperatures and dry through Monday, then rain chances return late next week.

Strong surface high remains in place across the region through the start of next week. Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Monday as highs reach the 60s, and lows settle in the upper 30s to 40s each day. Passing high cirrus today gives way to more mid-level cloudiness Sunday due to a shortwave trough that slides south of the region. The surface high moves offshore Monday and remains centered east of the Mid-Atlantic coast through the middle of next week. Return of east to southeast winds bring a gradual warming trend next week that has highs reach the low 70s on Tuesday, though still remaining dry.

A deep upper level trough pivots eastward from central CONUS on Wednesday, with precipitation chances returning to the forecast area. At the surface, a low pressure system tracks from the Mississippi River valley towards the Mid-Atlantic the second half of the week. As the system approaches, precipitation chances increase and are expected to linger through the end of the week. The best chance for widespread rain is on Thursday afternoon into Friday, as the low pressure system passes nearby. Surface high pressure builds overhead in the wake of the low pressure system, with diminishing rain chances expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge with those along and west in the upper 50s to 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s each night. Lows drop into the 40s east of the Blue Ridge Thursday and Friday night.

AVIATION

18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through the middle of the upcoming week. High pressure over the region will maintain light north winds today that gradually turn east to southeast Sunday, then remain south through Wednesday. The next chance for showers could arrive Wednesday night, but conditions likely still remain VFR.

MARINE

Northerly winds gusting around 10-15 knots this afternoon will gradually become light to calm this evening into tonight as high pressure settles over the region. The high begins to move offshore Sunday, then remains centered over the western Atlantic through the middle of next week. Light east to southeast winds on Sunday become southerly for much of next week. Southerly channeling effects could cause some increase in winds come Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

DC

None.

MD

None.

VA

None.

WV

None.

MARINE

None.

DISCUSSION...KRR/AVSAVIATION...KRRMARINE...KRR

Help & About

Forecast discussions

Each National Weather Service forecast office writes an Area Forecast Discussion: the forecasters' own account of the reasoning behind the forecast. It says what the weather models show and where they disagree, how confident the forecasters are, and what could change.

Offices issue one at least twice a day, early morning and afternoon, and update it as things change. It's written in sections, usually a synopsis, the near and long term, and the outlook for pilots, mariners and fire weather, ending with any watches, warnings and advisories in effect. Forecasters write in a shorthand of their own; the NWS glossary explains most of it.

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With your AI assistant

The offices, their discussions, forecasts and alerts are also an MCP server, so an assistant like Claude can read them for you. It needs no sign-in and changes nothing. Its address is 

https://wxd.app/mcp
  • In Claude, under Settings, then Connectors, add a custom connector with that address.
  • In Claude Code, run claude mcp add --transport http forecast-discussions https://wxd.app/mcp.
  • In another client, add a server reached over streamable HTTP at that address.

Then ask, say, what the Tucson office thinks of the weekend.

An experiment by Christopher Green. Not affiliated with the National Weather Service.

The discussions are the forecast offices' own, as published by the National Weather Service.

Set in these faces, each under the SIL Open Font License 1.1:

  • Lato by Łukasz Dziedzic, for the text
  • Bricolage Grotesque by the Bricolage Grotesque Project Authors, for headings and the wordmark
  • DM Mono by the DM Mono Project Authors, for what the offices write

Icons from Heroicons and, for the weather, Phosphor Icons, both under the MIT License.