Northern Indiana, Indiana

• A few light showers or sprinkles linger tonight into Sunday, but most areas will experience mainly dry weather.
• Very warm on Tuesday followed by increasing rain chances through Wednesday (60% chance).
• Windy conditions are possible for a time on Tuesday as south winds becoming gusty in advance of a cold front.

Low coverage light rain/sprinkle potential will continue through the remainder of the weekend but most areas will remain mainly dry.

An area of light rain/sprinkles has slowly migrated east-northeast across northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio this afternoon and these light rain showers appear to be tied to a zone of better 290-300K isentropic forcing. A weak easterly flow regime has kept subcloud layer dry with most areas only experiencing a trace to few hundredths of an inch. An exception to this was early this morning across western Indiana where bands of better amounts were realized.

Into this late afternoon/early evening, guidance is in general agreement that the initial stronger isentropic lift should weaken as zone of favored advective forcing lifts across southern Lower Michigan. As we head toward overnight into Sunday AM, some indications that a second push of stronger isentropic forcing may tend to lift south to north across east central Illinois into west central Indiana as a more defined vort max approaches the Mid MS River Valley. Despite the approach of this wave, low level moisture transport still looks limited locally and more favorable back across the Mid MS Rvr Valley. This argues for just maintaining 20% mention of measurable precip mainly for west/southwest locations. Sunday should feature a better chance of slightly better mixing that could support highs reaching near 70 across the far south/southeast.

Will still maintain dry conditions for Monday as the aforementioned short wave trough dampens in a background synoptic flow that continues to prefer longwave ridge maintenance across central CONUS. Some better low level moisture transport will begin to develop later in the day Monday as low level profiles begin to veer slightly, although still more impressive deeper transport profiles are expected to remain anchored back to the west, and this better moisture transport will only begin once mid/upper level forcing begins to wane.

Attention for Tue/Wed will be on more amplified and larger scale upper trough expected to track across central CONUS. Despite high amplitude, upper level forcing in terms of inducing low level height falls looks rather modest, with much of low level negative height tendencies will likely be derived from a broad pocket of highly anomalous warm low level air. The upstream system also still looks to occlude fairly quickly. Better moisture pooling should be in relatively narrow frontal zone, but a period of likely PoPs still appears in order late Tuesday into Wednesday. Instability in occluded sector will be rather meager, although cannot completely rule out a rumble of thunder. A period of windy conditions may develop on Tuesday with best chance of deeper mixing during the afternoon hours. Tuesday should feature the warmest day of the period with highs back into the low-mid 70s (could approach records for the date).

No notable intrusion of significantly colder air will accompany frontal passage midweek, with above normal temperatures expected to continue through the end of next work week. Some low rain chances were maintained in the long term Day 4-7 period with at least the possibility of southern stream disturbance developing out of west coast split flow meandering across Ohio River Valley late in the work week.

Sprinkles and scattered light rain showers are expected to persist this afternoon and evening. Winds remain out of the southeast around 10 kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. VFR ceilings and visibilities will prevail with ceilings between 8-10 kft.

IN

None.

OH

None.

MI

None.

MARINE

None.