Fort Worth-Dallas, Texas

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION

• Occasional light rain or drizzle is possible across portions of North Texas the rest of the afternoon, but most locations will remain dry.
• The next storm system is forecast to sweep across the region Monday night into Tuesday. There is a low risk of severe weather, but details will continue to be refined over the weekend.
• Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east.

Mostly cloudy and gloomy conditions will persist the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Outside of some occasional light rain/drizzle across portions of North and East Texas, most locations will remain dry the rest of the day. For those looking forward for trick-or-treating this evening, temperatures will drop to the 60s with light winds and dry weather.

As rich low-level moisture lingers across the region, another round of low clouds and/or fog will will develop after midnight tonight. While areas across East Texas will have the best chances to see areas of dense fog, low clouds and/or patchy fog may still develop elsewhere through Sunday morning. A mid-upper level ridge will briefly take over the pattern on Sunday ahead of the next storm system. This will keep our area precipitation free, with clearing skies in the afternoon and highs in the 80s. Quiet weather will continue Sunday night with lows staying in the low to mid 60s.

The main story of the long-term forecast continues to be the strong upper level system expected to travel across the central U.S early this week bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. Large scale troughing will be dominating the western CONUS with several waves ejecting eastward during the week. At the surface, medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement placing a cold front/dryline near the TX/OK Panhandle Monday afternoon, pushing east across our CWA Monday night into Tuesday. Confidence is increasing that any storms that develop ahead of the boundary will remain north/west of our area through late afternoon, with storm chances increasing across our western counties after 6-7pm Monday as both the front and upper wave arrive.

Showers and storms will increase in coverage overnight into Tuesday as the front moves across North and Central TX. Latest guidance shows the boundary somewhere near the I-35 corridor early Tuesday morning and towards East/Central Texas later in the morning or early afternoon. Most of the activity should exit our region by mid-late afternoon with breezy/cooler weather behind the front.

In terms of severe risk, we continue to watch the potential for a few strong to severe storms Monday evening/night mainly across our northwestern counties. While the thermodynamic parameters won`t be particularly strong over our area, it could be sufficient for a few storms to produce strong/damaging winds. Additionally, winds in the lower levels will also become favorable for organized convection as the system moves eastward. One feature that is still uncertain at this time is the potential for this risk to extend farther east/south Monday night and eventually Tuesday. While our current thinking is that the best potential will remain north of our area, it is something we will have to watch as new data arrives and higher resolution guidance begins to resolve these features.

Much drier air will begin to filter in behind the front on Tuesday. Breezy northwesterly winds 15-20 mph gusting to 25 mph are expected during the afternoon keeping the temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Clearing skies will follow as well with quiet and pleasant weather to continue Wednesday through the rest of the week. Daytime highs will stay in the low to mid 70s and overnight temperatures in the 40s to low 50s. Another disturbance may travel eastward across the central U.S during the late week period, with most of the precipitation staying north of our area.

D10: VFR conditions should resume later this afternoon before low clouds return tonight beginning around 07Z. The latest guidance has fog developing primarily east of the Metroplex, with DAL on the edge of IFR conditions. We included a TEMPO for IFR cigs at DAL from 13-15Z to address this potential and sub-2kft MVFR elsewhere across the Metroplex. Should the better fog potential shift westward, IFR cigs may be needed farther west.

KACT: Low clouds and/or fog will also impact the Waco area tomorrow morning (07-17Z), driving significant uncertainty in the prevailing flight category. Confidence is highest in MVFR conditions, but IFR or even LIFR cigs/vis would become probable if fog develops at KACT (20-40% chance).

VFR conditions should return at all TAF sites by early tomorrow afternoon.

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  81  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
Waco                62  83  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               62  79  63  84 /  10   0   0   0
Denton              60  80  63  84 /   0   0   0  10
McKinney            63  80  63  83 /  10  10   0  10
Dallas              65  82  67  85 /   0   0  10   0
Terrell             63  81  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           64  82  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              62  85  65  86 /   0   0  10   0
Mineral Wells       59  81  63  84 /   0  10   0  20

None.