El Paso, Texas

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER

• Cloudy, mild weather for Halloween. Spotty rain showers west, but mostly dry tonight.
• Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding across Southwest New Mexico, in particular the Gila Wilderness. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant and Hidalgo Counties.
• A much-needed stretch of quieter weather is expected next week with dry conditions and typical early November temperatures.

Quite a bit of mid-and-high-level cloud coverage for our Halloween this year with plenty of moisture aloft. Precipitable water values should still be in the 1.0-1.2" range, well above normal for the end of October. Broad ridging flow aloft and the lack of surface instability due to cloud coverage will lead to a "mostly" dry forecast for Halloween night. Can`t rule out a stray rain shower or two across Southwest New Mexico, but 95% of the region will be dry tonight. Temperatures will peak in the upper 60s/lower 70s this afternoon, only cooling a few degrees tonight with the aforementioned clouds keeping us rather mild overnight. Wind will be light and variable. I don`t see anything that will interrupt outdoor festivities tonight, so have fun everybody!

Two features to focus on for Sunday fixed across the Southwestern U.S. will be a strengthening subtropical jet streak reaching 95-knots at 500mb and a diving Pacific low right behind it. This will lead to yet another round of rain chances for the area, along with a frontal boundary passage between the Sunday evening-early Monday morning timeframe. Scattered rain showers beginning along the AZ/NM state line as early as Sunday morning will bring a risk of training storms and flash flooding through the day. Main risk will be across Grant/Hidalgo Counties Sunday afternoon in time with frontal passage. Enhanced lifting along the front will lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a storm motion parallel to the boundary due to the subtropical jet aloft posing a risk of training storms and heavy rain "streaks". Most likely rainfall across Grant County will be 0.50-1.00, but a few spots of 1.50-2.00" will be possible. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the Gila and upper Mimbres watersheds. Breezy southwest winds will exist ahead of this Pacific front, generally 20-30 mph Sunday afternoon across Southwest New Mexico.

Less concerned about heavy rain for the Rio Grande valley and south-central New Mexico region as dry air entrainment at the base of the Pacific low may lead to weaker and lower coverage rain showers. Even less concerned further SE into Far West Texas, where rain chances are lower. Still, we can expect scattered rain showers Sunday night-Monday morning for the I-25/US-54 corridors as the frontal boundary moves through.

Full-on dry-slotting on Monday behind the Pacific low. This will lead to a breezy and cool dry with mostly clear skies. West winds 15 to 20 mph is the current forecast. A few lingering rain showers may exist over the Sacramento Mountains, but are not expected to last through Monday morning.

Dare I say it, next week finally looks dry for New Mexico and west Texas. This will be a much-needed reprieve from rain after a very wet September and October. Lowland highs in the lower 70s will be right near normal for early November. No major swings in temperature expected and winds look generally light.

VMC through forecast period with skies SCT-BKN120, BKN250. FEW020 over mtns at KELP next few hours. Surface winds 140-180 AOB 5 knots this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Isolated -RA across SW NM this evening, which may affect KDMN. Left out of TAF due to low confidence and minimal impacts.

Light and variable winds overnight with continued cloud cover for your Halloween. Overnight temperatures will stay warm due to cloud coverage.

Pacific storm system will approach the area on Sunday, with breezy southwest winds winds ahead of it. Sustained speeds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph Sunday afternoon will lead to Good vent rates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning across Gila NF will spread eastward across Southern New Mexico and Lincoln NF Sunday night into Monday morning. Localized heavy rain will lead to a flood risk for Gila NF Sunday afternoon.

Conditions becoming dry again on Monday, with a week of dry weather and light winds ahead. Vent rates generally look Poor to Fair each afternoon going forward. Few day-to-day changes in temperature next week, typical for early November. Fire danger will remain low due to seasonally high ERCs.

El Paso                  60  80  60  72 /   0   0  50   0
Sierra Blanca            54  77  55  72 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               55  76  54  68 /   0   0  80   0
Alamogordo               55  77  53  68 /  10  10  90  30
Cloudcroft               42  56  40  45 /  10  10 100  40
Truth or Consequences    56  75  53  70 /  20  30  90   0
Silver City              51  67  47  60 /  40  70 100  30
Deming                   54  77  51  68 /  10  20  90   0
Lordsburg                55  73  50  65 /  20  70  90  20
West El Paso Metro       61  79  61  71 /   0   0  50   0
Dell City                56  79  57  73 /   0   0  20   0
Fort Hancock             61  87  61  80 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               55  73  54  65 /  10   0  40  10
Fabens                   60  84  60  76 /  10   0  20  10
Santa Teresa             58  78  58  70 /   0   0  60   0
White Sands HQ           59  78  57  70 /  10  10  80   0
Jornada Range            56  77  53  70 /  10  10  90   0
Hatch                    57  79  54  73 /  10  10  90   0
Columbus                 57  79  56  71 /  10  10  80   0
Orogrande                55  77  54  69 /   0  10  80  10
Mayhill                  48  69  47  59 /  10  10  80  20
Mescalero                47  67  45  56 /  10  10 100  60
Timberon                 45  65  43  56 /  20  20  90  20
Winston                  48  69  45  62 /  40  50  90  10
Hillsboro                55  74  51  69 /  40  40  90   0
Spaceport                55  75  51  70 /  10  20  90   0
Lake Roberts             48  66  43  60 /  60  80 100  50
Hurley                   51  70  47  63 /  30  60 100  20
Cliff                    57  72  50  67 /  60  90 100  40
Mule Creek               52  65  46  63 /  80 100 100  50
Faywood                  54  70  49  62 /  30  40 100  10
Animas                   56  75  51  68 /  10  50  90  10
Hachita                  54  76  51  67 /  10  20  90  10
Antelope Wells           55  77  53  70 /  10  20  90   0
Cloverdale               54  68  50  64 /  10  40  90  10

TX

None.

NM

Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.