Wakefield, Virginia

Updated discussion.

No significant changes.

1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but no rain is expected.

2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

As of 245 PM EDT Saturday

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but no rain is expected.

Mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures prevail across the local area this afternoon. A large area of high pressure has been building southward into the Mid-Atlantic behind last night`s (dry) cold front. Aloft, a large area of mid/upper-level clouds are streaming eastward ahead of a sprawling, diffuse shortwave trough. These clouds gradually overspread the area later today and persist through most of the weekend. However, there certainly will be some sunshine on Sunday. The weather also looks ideal for any evening festivities this Halloween with trick-or-treating temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s, light winds, and dry conditions. Chilly tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except upper 40s to near 50 F at the immediate coast. Patchy frost is possible by tomorrow morning, but is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant any advisories (plus it`ll be early November so the concern for minor impacts is lower).

Temperatures warm a few degrees on Sunday and Monday, with highs ranging from mid 60s to lower 70s. The warmest temps will tend to occur away from the coast due to continuing onshore flow keeping coastal locations a few degrees cooler. Temps warm further Tuesday as a NNW-SSE ridge axis moves overhead. Highs should be in the 70s for all of the area and interior portions of southern VA and NE NC could approach the upper 70s. While some rain chances existed for the Monday-Tuesday timeframe a few days ago, there is strong consensus among the global ensembles, AI guidance, and NBM on very low (<5%) PoPs, mainly due to unfavorable forcing aloft and dry low levels. Warm again on Wednesday with high temps ranging through the 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November.

The seasonably warm temperatures continue into mid-late week as that aforementioned ridge shifts offshore. A complex surface and upper-air pattern develops mid week, particularly over the central CONUS, with some potential for a few showers by late week as these features approach our area. In terms of the specifics, a strong low pressure system will initially move from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. As mentioned by my previous forecaster, there remains lots of different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and timing of this system. The probability of widespread rainfall (and beneficial amounts) seems to generally be decreasing and most of the ensembles show a relative minima in rainfall over our area. However, this still could change and we continue to advertise a general 40-50% PoP from Thursday morning into Friday. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future.

As of 135 PM EDT Saturday

VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through the 18z TAF period. Cloud cover will be SCT-BKN high clouds and should increase late this afternoon and evening and persist through the remainder of the period. NE 5-10 kt winds become 5 kt or less tonight, before increasing again by later Sunday morning. Other than very shallow ground fog, not expecting any VSBY restrictions tonight.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week, but confidence remains low.

As of 220 PM EDT Saturday

Key Messages

• Winds gradually diminish through this evening as high pressure builds across the region.
• Seas remain elevated but below SCA levels through the first half of the upcoming week.

High pressure (~1034 mb) centered over the eastern Great Lakes continues to ridge into the lower Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish through this evening as the high settles over the area tonight. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay remain ~2-3 ft, while seas have dropped to 3-4 ft north and 4-5 ft south of Cape Charles. The remaining SCA south of Cape Charles is still on track to expire early this evening.

Dry and relatively benign boating conditions will prevail through midweek, though light onshore flow (E-NE 5-10 kt, veering E-SE later Monday and Tuesday) will maintain 2-4 ft seas on the ocean and 1-2 ft waves on the Bay tonight through Tuesday. By Wednesday, developing low pressure looks to track north along the Gulf Stream and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through late week. This could bring welcome rain to the region Thursday and Friday, along with building seas and an extended period of SCA conditions for the coastal waters and lower Bay from Wednesday night through Friday.

MD

None.

NC

None.

VA

None.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658.